Whakahoutanga o ngā ahuatanga ōhanga mō te wā roa: Pēhea e taea ai e Ōhiona te hanga anō i tōna ara tipu i roto i ngā panonitanga o te ao?

Arataki

Ko te uara o te matapae ōhanga, ehara i te mea ko te matapae tōtika, engari ko te whakarato i tētahi anga whakaaetanga mō ngā herenga wā-roa mā ngā kaihanga kaupapa here. I te whakaputanga a te OECD i āna ariā ōhanga wā-roa hou (Long-Run Economic Scenarios) i te tau 2025, ka whiwhi ngā kāwanatanga, ngā kaipupuri moni, me ngā umanga whanaketanga o Ōhiana i tētahi whai wāhitanga ki te whakatikatika i ō rātou taunaha rautaki.

Ehara tēnei whakahoutanga i te tārua tatau noa iho. Ka whakakotahi ia i ngā huringa o te hanganga taupori, i ngā ia o te whakatipu hua, i ngā ara whakaemi whakapaipai, me ngā utu o te whakawhiti pūngao, hei whakautu i tētahi pātai taketake: i te wā e tata mai nei, ka pēhea te tere o te tipu o ngā ōhanga o ngā whenua? Mō Ōhiana, he tino uaua ake te whakautu i tā te tangata e whakaaro ai. Ko Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, hei ōhanga whakawhanake, e aro atu ana ki te pakaru i ngā here o te whakatipu hua, ki te whakahaere i te whakawhiti kākāriki, ki te whai i te hanganga hou o ngā hiahia o Āhia; ko neke atu i te tekau ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, me rapu i tētahi ara whanaketanga kaha ake i roto i tētahi ao e kaha ake ana te mōrearea o te āhuarangi.

Ko tēnei tuhinga e whakamahi ana i ngā ariā wā-roa o te OECD hei papamuri, me ngā āhuatanga o te hanganga ōhanga o te rohe, ki te tātari i ngā pānga o tēnei whakahoutanga ki te āhua ōhanga o Ōhiana, me te aro nui ki ngā kaha me ngā ngoikore o Ahitereiria, o Aotearoa, me ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i roto i te whakataetae wā-roa.

Papamuri: Te anga ahu-maha o ngā ariā ōhanga wā-roa a OECD

Ko ngā ariā ōhanga wā-roa a OECD i te nuinga o te wā e whakaatu ana i ngā huarahi tipu mō ngā tau 30 ki te 40 kei mua, ko ngā taurangi matua ko te tuku kaimahi, te pūtea whakapaipai e toe ana, te whakatipu hua katoa, me ngā haumitanga e pā ana ki te whakawhiti pūngao. Ko te whakahoutanga o te tau 2025, i runga i ngā putanga o mua, kua tāpiri atu i ngā pānga o te hua nawe i muri i te mate urutā COVID-19, te mōrearea o te wehenga ōhanga matawhenua, me ngā herenga kaupapa here kore-tuku waro (net zero).

Mō ngā ōhanga o Ōhiana, he tino tikanga tohutoro ā tēnei ariā a OECD. I te mea he wāhanga o te rohe Āhia-Kiwa, ka piri tonu te tipu o Ōhiana ki ngā mekameka uara o Āhia, ki ngā hiahia rawa, me te pūtea āhuarangi. Ko ngā rangahau a OECD i ēnei wāhanga — pērā i te tātari i te hokohoko ā-ao, te utu waro, me te haumitanga hanganga — e pā tonu ana ki te whakatakoto i ngā kaupapa matua o ngā kaupapa here ōhanga ā-rohe. Me aro nui atu, ehara i te mea ka aro noa ngā ariā wā-roa a OECD ki te tere tipu o te GDP, engari ka aro nui atu ki te pūmau me te whai wāhi o te tipu, koia tonu te wāhanga matua rawa o te whakapae whanaketanga wā-roa mō ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Tātaritanga Hōhonu: Te Whakaahua Tipu o ngā Whenua E Toru

Ahitereiria: Te Wero Whakatipu Hua i Muri i ngā Hua Rawa

Kua whai hua te ōhanga o Ahitereiria i ngā tau rua tekau kua hipa i te hiahia rawa nā te whakakāhinga o Āhia, ko ngā hoko ki tāwāhi o te rino, te waro, me te hau māori i tautoko i te taumata teitei o te moni whiwhi mō ia tangata. Heoi, ko ngā ariā wā-roa a OECD e kī ana, i muri i te tino teitei o ngā haumitanga ki te umanga keri rawa, ka pēhia ngā ōhanga whai rawa e te pōkekeretanga o te whakatipu hua. Kua heke haere te tipu o te kaimahi o Ahitereiria i te koroheketanga o te taupori, ā, ko te hōhonutanga o te whakapaipai e herea ana e ngā taumata reiti o te ao.Ko te tāupe tino hirahira ake ko te whakawhiti pūngao. He kaiwhakaputa hau māori whakawaipiro matua a Ahitereiria i te ao, ā, kei a ia anō hoki ngā rawa hiko rā me te pūngao hau o te taumata o te ao. I roto i ngā āhuatanga o te wā roa, mā te whakawhitinga waro-iti o te ao e hōputu anō te hanganga o te tauhokohoko taonga: ko ngā hoko atu o ngā kora matatoka tūturu ka ūpoko pea ki te memenge o te hiahia mō te wā roa, engari ko ngā kōhuke matua (lithium, kobalt, ngā whenua onge) ka whai wāhi hoko atu hōu mō Ahitereiria. Ko ngā whakapae a te OECD mō ngā ara whakaheke waro ka pā tika ki te pono o ēnei matapae.

Ko te whakataetae o Ahitereiria mō te wā roa e whakawhirinaki ana anō ki tōna hononga ki ngā mekameka uara o Āhia. I te neke haere tonu o te pū ōhanga o te rohe Indo-Pākīpika whaka-te-rāwhiti, ko ngā tauhokohoko ratonga o Ahitereiria (mātauranga, pūtea, tāpoi) me ngā hua ahuwhenua hoko atu e tūmanakohia ana kia tipu haere tonu. Engari kei te whakatūpato anō te OECD, mā te wehewehenga o te tauhokohoko o te ao ka piki ake ngā utu kawe me ngā utu tautukunga, ā, he tino kino rawa tēnei ki a Ahitereiria, he whenua noho mokemoke.

Aotearoa: te “utunga kākāriki” i ākina e te pakari o te āhuarangi

Ko te ōhanga o Aotearoa e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā hua ahuwhenua hoko atu me te tāpoi; ko ngā hua miraka, te mīti, me te rākau ngā tino taonga whiwhi moni. I roto i ngā āhuatanga wā roa a te OECD, he iti ake i te nuinga o te wā te pūmanawa tipu o Aotearoa i tō Ahitereiria, engari he ōrite te taumata o ngā moni whiwhi mō ia tangata ki tō Ahitereiria. Ko te painga o Aotearoa kei tōna tohu taiao me te kounga o ngā pūnaha whakahaere, engari e mārama ana anō ngā ngoikoretanga: kua tawhito ngā hanganga, he iti noa iho te haumitanga ki te rangahau me te whanaketanga, ā, he tawhiti te whenua.

Ko te kaupapa here āhuarangi tētahi wāhi motuhake i te tirohanga whanaketanga wā roa o Aotearoa. Hei kaiwhakamana kaha o Te Whakaaetanga o Parī, kua whakaturetia e Aotearoa tana herenga kia eke ki te kore tukunga waro māwhe ā-tau 2050. E whakaatu ana ngā āhuatanga a te OECD, ko ngā whenua e whakatinana tuatahi ana i te utunga waro, ka nui ake tā rātou whakawhirinaki ki ngā auahatanga hangarau waro-iti me ngā utunga hua kākāriki i roto i te wā roa. Ka whai hua pea te ahumahi miraka o Aotearoa i te manakotanga o te mākete ki te “puna waiū tauwhiro”, engari ko te utu ko te pikinga o ngā utu i te wā poto me te tere o te whakakotahitanga o ngā pāmu.

Ko tētahi atu tāupe wā roa ko te kaupapa here manene. Ko te tipunga o te taupori o Aotearoa e whakawhirinaki nui ana ki te taenga mai o ngā manene. Ki te tohungia he whakapae taupori tūpato ake i roto i ngā āhuatanga a te OECD, ka pēhia iho te tipu pūmanawa. Engari, ki te taea e Aotearoa te kukume mai i ētahi atu manene mōhio rawa, ka āwhina ki te whakamāmā i te kore kaimahi me te whakanui i te matotoru o te auahatanga. Mō te wā roa, me kimi e Aotearoa te taurite i waenga i te kaha kawe o te hapori me ngā hiahia ohaoha.

Ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: te uauatanga e rua o te mōrearea āhuarangi me te whanaketanga

Ki ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko ngā āhuatanga wā roa a te OECD he whakatūpato, ehara i te mahere. Ehara ēnei whenua i te nuinga o te wā i ngā mema o te OECD, engari nā te whakaraerae o te āhuarangi me te hiahia ki te pūtea whanaketanga, ka whakaurua ki ngā kōrero mō te tirohanga wā roa o te ao. Nā te whakamahanatanga o te ao i piki ake ai te auau o ngā awhā, i piki ai te taumata o te moana, i waikawa ai te moana; ko ēnei e whakaweti tika ana i te tāpoi, te hī ika, me ngā hanganga takutai—ko ērā tonu ngā pūmanawa o ngā ōhanga moutere.

Ko ngā rangahau a te OECD mō te āhuarangi me te whanaketanga e whakanui ana he nui noa atu te utu o te urutau i te utu o te whakahekenga tukunga, ā, kāore i a ngā whenua moutere te whakapaipai tuatahi me te pūtea ārai hei whakatutuki. Ki te whakapaetia i roto i ngā āhuatanga wā roa ka piki te pāmahana o te ao ki runga ake i te 2°C, ka tino whakahekea te pūmanawa tipu o ngā whenua pēnei i Whīti, Vanuatu, me ngā Motu o Horomona, nā te mea ia tau ka pau te nui o te GDP ki te hanganga anō i muri i ngā aituā.I te wā kotahi, kei ngā whenua motu ētahi rawa māroa motuhake: te rohe ōhanga motuhake whānui, te kanorau koiora, me te pūmanawa o te moana. Ko te whakawhanaketanga o te hī ika me ngā kohuke o te moana hōhonu ka noho pea hei pūtea hou, engari ki te kore e tika te whakahaere, ka māmā noa te whakapakaru i te taiao. Ko te anga ōhanga kikorangi e whakatairangatia ana e te OECD, he huarahi whakahaere tērā e rapu ana i te toenga i waenga i te tiaki me te whakawhanaketanga mō ngā whenua motu. Ko te wāteatanga o te pūtea whanaketanga, ko te pai o te tohatoha o ngā pūtea āhuarangi, me te mahere tika mō te haumi i ngā hanganga, ka whakatau mēnā ka taea e ngā whenua motu te huri mai i te urutau noa ki te whanaketanga kaha.

Ngā Pānga ā-Rohe: Te Pānga Tūhono o te Katoa o Ōhia

Ko te mea e whakaatuhia ana e te tirohanga roa a te OECD, ehara i te anamata o ia whenua motuhake, engari ko te hononga tūtata o roto i te rohe. Ka rere ngā rerekētanga ōhanga matua o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki ngā whenua motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mā ngā huarahi o te tuku moni mai, te mahi tāpoi, me te āwhina. E ai ki ngā raraunga, ko ngā moni tukua mai i tāwāhi ki a Whītī, Hāmoa me ētahi atu whenua, e 10 paihēneti neke atu te nui o te GDP i ngā tau katoa, ā, ko te nuinga nō ngā tāngata e noho ana i Ahitereiria me Aotearoa. Ki te heke te tipu ōhanga e taea ana e Ahitereiria me Aotearoa nā te tū noho o te whakaputanga, ka pāngia hoki ngā moni whiwhi ā-tāwāhi o ngā whenua motu.

Engari anō, ko te pakari āhuarangi o ngā whenua motu e pā ana ki te pūmau rautaki o te rohe katoa. Kua uru a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki ngā kaupapa e pā ana ki te "Haumarutanga Āhuarangi o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa", me te whakaū ki te tuku pūtea āhuarangi me te tautoko hangarau ki ngā whenua motu. Mō te wā roa, ka puta pea i tēnei mahi tahi he "hapori āhuarangi": ka hoatu e Ahitereiria me Aotearoa te pūtea me te hangarau hei utu i te hōhonutanga rautaki me te whai wāhi ki ngā rawa o te moana o ngā whenua motu. Ko ngā whakapae a te OECD mō te utu waro me ngā kaupapa here whakaheke tukunga waro, ka pā ki te utu me te rahi o ēnei mahi tahi.

Ko te hanga anō i ngā ara hokohoko, he mea nui anō tērā mō te rohe. Ko te hononga kaipuke i waenga i te Teritori ki te Raki o Ahitereiria, ngā tauranga o Kuīnirani, me Papua Nūkini me Tīmoa Rāwhiti, e kiia ana he hononga matua mō te mekameka tuku o Āhia me Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ā ngā tau kei mua. Ko ngā matapae a te OECD mō te tipu o te hokohoko o te ao, ka whakatau i te hua o ngā haumi i ēnei ara. Ki te kaha haere te tiaki hokohoko o te ao, ka piki te nui o te hokohoko i roto i te rohe, ā, ka kaha ake te whai a ngā whenua o Ōhia i te "Kotahitanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa" hei whakatika i te iti o te hiahia o waho.

Ngā Āhuatanga Roa: Ngā Taurangi Matua mō te 3 Tau, 5 Tau, 10 Tau

I roto i ngā tau e 3 e tū mai nei (tae atu ki te tau 2028), ka herea te ōhanga o Ōhia e te huringa pikinga utu o te ao me te huarahi o ngā kaupapa here moni. Ko ngā kaupapa here a ngā pēke matua o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa e whakatau ana i te whakapaunga a ngā whānau me te tere o te haumi, engari me aro ngā whenua motu ki ngā rerekētanga o te utu kai me te utu pūngao. Ko te ara e whakahokia ai ngā reiti huamoni ki te taumata noa, e ai ki ngā tirohanga a te OECD, ka pā ki te pūmau o ngā pūtea a ia whenua.

I roto i ngā tau e 5 e tū mai nei (tae atu ki te tau 2030), ka noho ko ngā āhuatanga hanganga te mea nui. Ka tū pea te tikanga whakatika waro ki ngā rohe o te ao, ā, ka tino pā ki ngā hoko atu waro-nui a Ahitereiria me ngā hoko atu kai a ngā whenua motu. I te wā kotahi, mēnā ka mau ngā ōhanga o Ōhia i ngā whai wāhitanga o ngā kohuke matua me te hanga taputapu pūngao whakahou, ka kaha te whakatau i te ahunga o tō rātou whakakaha umanga. Ko te kaupapa here "Hanga mō Āpōpō" a Ahitereiria me te mahere hauwai kākāriki a Aotearoa, kua kitea te hiahia ki te huri ki ngā wāhanga uara-nui.Ngā tau 10 kei mua (ki te tau 2035), ka tino puta ngā pānga tāpiripiri o te panonitanga taupori me te panonitanga hangarau. Ka heke haere tonu te ōwehenga o te taupori mahi o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, ā, me whakawhirinaki ki te kaupapa here manene aunoa hei parepare. Ka pā mai ki ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa te ngaru nui rawa o te taupori rangatahi i te hītori; ki te kore e whakaratohia he mahi rawaka, ka piki ake te pēhanga o te nekehanga kaimahi ā-rohe. Ko ngā whakapae matua i roto i ngā tirohanga pae-roa a te OECD—pērā i te whakapikinga o te huanga mā te AI, me te whakahoutanga o te ahuwhenua mā te hangarau koiora—ka puta he pānga rerekē ki ngā ahumahi rerekē o Oceania.

Whakataunga: te whārite kore-ōhanga o te tipu pae-roa

Ko ngā tirohanga ōhanga pae-roa a te OECD he whakamahara ki a tātou, kāore te anamata o Oceania e whakatauhia ana e ngā rawa māori me ngā tikanga o mua. Ko te mea e tino whakatau ana i te reiti tipu pae-roa, ko ngā kōwhiringa kaupapa here, te kounga o ngā pūnaha, me te kaha o te mahi tahi ā-rohe. Me whati a Ahitereiria i te "kanga kōhatu", ka huri i ngā moni rawa hei whakapaipai auaha; me rapu a Aotearoa i te taurite hihiri i waenga i te tiaki ahuwhenua me ngā herenga taiao; me huri ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i te pūtea āhuarangi mai i te "āwhina ohotata" ki te "haumitanga pae-roa".

Ki ngā ōhanga katoa o Oceania, kāore te tipu i te mea he kēmu e noho noa ai te tangata. Ka tae ngā huringa o ngā reiti huamoni o te ao, te utu waro, ngā ture hokohoko, me te tōrangapū matawhenua ki ngā takutai o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te tonga mā ngā tikanga maha i roto i ngā tirohanga a te OECD. Ka roa ake te utu o te whakahē i te panoni i tētahi hekenga ōhanga.