OECD Tiitro Roa ohaoha 2025: Me pēhea te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e hanga anō i ngā huarahi tipu i roto i ngā panonitanga o te ao?

Kupu Whakataki

Ko te uara o ngā matapae ōhanga ehara i te matapae tika, engari ko te whakarato i tētahi anga whakaaro kotahi mō ngā herenga wā-roa ki ngā kaihanga kaupapa here. I te tukunga a te OECD i te huinga hou rawa o ngā āhuatanga ōhanga mō te wā roa (Long-Run Economic Scenarios) i te tau 2025, ka whai wāhi ngā kāwanatanga, ngā kaipupuri moni, me ngā umanga whanaketanga o Ōhia ki te whakatikatika anō i ō rātou taunaki rautaki.

Ehara tēnei whakahoutanga i te tārua whika māmā. Kua whakakotahitia e ia ngā huringa hanganga taupori, ngā ia tipu o te whakaputanga, ngā ara whakaemi whakapaipai, me ngā utu o te whakawhitinga pūngao, e ngana ana ki te whakautu i tētahi pātai taketake: i roto i te wā e tata mai nei, kia pēhea te tere o te tipu o te ōhanga? Mō Ōhia, he uaua rawa atu te whakautu i tōna whakaarohia. Ko Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, he ōhanga whanake, e hāngai atu ana ki ngā wero maha: te whakawāhi i te āraitanga o te whakaputanga, te whakahaere i te whakawhitinga kākāriki, me te urutau ki te hanganga anō o ngā hiahia o Āhia; ko ngā moutere maha o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, me rapu huarahi whanaketanga pakari ake i roto i te ao e kaha ake ana ngā tūpono āhuarangi.

Papamuri: Te Anga Māha-Tirohanga o ngā Āhuatanga Wā Roa a te OECD

Ko ngā āhuatanga ōhanga wā roa a te OECD e whakaatu ana i ngā ara tipu mō te 30–40 tau kei mua, ko ngā taurangi matua ko te tuku kaimahi, te rahi o te whakapaipai, te whakaputanga katoa, me ngā haumi e pā ana ki te whakawhitinga pūngao. I te whakahoutanga o te tau 2025, i tua atu i ngā putanga o mua, kua tāpirihia ngā pānga o te māwhai o te mate COVID-19, te tūpono wehewehenga ōhanga matawhenua, me ngā pānga o ngā kaupapa here kore-tukuwaro.

Mō ngā ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, he uara motuhake hei tohutoro ēnei āhuatanga. Hei wāhanga o te rohe Āhia-Kiwa, ka piri haere te tipu o Ōhia ki ngā mekameka uara o Āhia, ki ngā tono rawa, me te pūtea āhuarangi. Ko ngā rangahau a te OECD i ēnei wāhanga — hei tauira, ngā tātaritanga mō te hokohoko ao, te utu waro, me ngā haumi hanganga matua — e whai pānga tika ana ki te whakarārangitanga o ngā kaupapa here ōhanga ā-rohe. He mea nui te kite, ehara i te mea ko te reiti tipu o te GDP anake te arotahi o ngā āhuatanga wā roa a te OECD, engari ka whakanuia anō te toitūtanga me te whakaurunga o te tipu, ā, koira tonu te aho matua o te whakaaro whanaketanga mō te wā roa o ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Tātaritanga Hōhonu: Te Whakaahua Tipu o ngā Ōhanga e Toru

Ahitereiria: Te Wero Whakaputanga i muri i te Hua o ngā Rawa

I roto i ngā tau e rua tekau kua hipa, i whai hua te ōhanga o Ahitereiria i te hiahia rawa i ākina e te ahumahitanga o Āhia. Nā ngā hokohoko atu o te rino, te waro, me te kapuni i tautoko ai te nui o te moni whiwhi mō ia tangata. Heoi anō, ko tā ngā āhuatanga wā roa a te OECD e kī ai, i muri i te tihi o ngā haumi a te umanga keri rawa, ka kaha te pēhanga ki aua ōhanga rawa kia pōnoho haere te tipu o te whakaputanga. Kua heke haere te tipu o te kaimahi o Ahitereiria nā te koroheketanga o te taupori, ā, ko te wāhi mō te hōhonutanga o te whakapaipai ka herea e ngā reiti huamoni o te ao.

Ko te taurangi tino nui atu ko te whakawhitinga pūngao. Ko Ahitereiria tētahi o ngā kaihoko kapuni waipēhi matua o te ao, ā, kei a ia hoki ngā rawa o te rā me te hau i te taumata o te ao. I roto i ngā āhuatanga mō te wā roa, mā te whakawhitinga waro-iti o te ao e hōputu anō te hanganga o te hokohoko i ngā rawa matua: ka heke te hiahia mō te wā roa ki te hoko atu i ngā kora pūngao tawhito, engari ko ngā kōhuke matua — te litiuma, te koberata, me ngā whenua onge — he huarahi hoko atu hōu mā Ahitereiria. Ko ngā whakapae a te OECD mō te ara whakaheke waro ka whai pānga tika ki te pono o ēnei matapae.E whakawhirinaki ana hoki te whakataetae o Ahitereiria mō te wā roa ki te taumata o tōna whakaurunga ki ngā mekameka uara o Āhia. I te neke haere tonu o te pokapū ōhanga o te rohe Īnia-Kiwa ki te rāwhiti, ko te hokohoko ratonga a Ahitereiria (mātauranga, pūtea, tāpoi) me ngā hua ahuwhenua e hoko atu ana ki tāwāhi, e tūmanakohia ana ka tipu tonu. Engari kei te whakatūpato anō te OECD, mā te wehewehenga o te hokohoko o te ao ka piki ake pea ngā utu waka me ngā utu herenga ture; ā, he tino mate tēnei mō Ahitereiria nō te mea he whenua wehe kē ia i te ao.

Aotearoa: Te "Tāpiritanga Kākāriki" e ākina ana e te manawaroa ki te āhuarangi

Ko te ōhanga o Aotearoa e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā hua ahuwhenua e hoko atu ana ki tāwāhi me te tāpoi; ko ngā hua miraka, te mīti, me ngā rākau ngā puna matua o te whiwhinga moni i tāwāhi. I te nuinga o te wā, i roto i ngā tirohanga wā roa a te OECD, he iti ake te pāpātanga o te tipu pūmanawa o Aotearoa i tō Ahitereiria, engari he rite te taumata o te moni whiwhi mō ia tangata. Ko ngā painga o Aotearoa ko tōna waitohu taiao me te kounga o ngā umanga; ko ōna ngoikoretanga e mārama ana hoki: ko te tawhito o ngā hanganga, te iti o te haumi rangahau me te whakawhanaketanga, me te noho matara o te whenua.

E whai wāhi motuhake ana te kaupapa here āhuarangi i roto i te tirohanga whanaketanga wā roa o Aotearoa. I te mea he kaiwhakatinana kaha o te Whakaaetanga o Parī, kua whakaturetia e Aotearoa tana herenga kia eke ki te kore waro i te tau 2050. E ai ki ngā tirohanga a te OECD, ko ngā whenua e ārahi ana i te whakatinana i te utunga waro, mō te wā roa ka nui ake tā rātou whakawhirinaki ki ngā auahatanga hangarau iti-waro me ngā tāpiritanga kākāriki o ngā hua. Ka whai hua pea te ahumiraka o Aotearoa i te whakaaetanga a te mākete ki ngā "puna miraka toitū", engari ko te utu, ko te pikinga o ngā utu mō te wā poto me te tere o te whakakotahitanga o ngā pāmu.

Ko tētahi atu tāupe wā roa ko te kaupapa here manene. Ko te tipunga taupori o Aotearoa e tino whakawhirinaki ana ki te toenga o ngā manene e uru mai ana. Ki te mea he iti iho ngā whakapae taupori i roto i ngā tirohanga a te OECD, ka āraitia te tipu pūmanawa; engari, ki te taea e Aotearoa te kukume mai ngā manene mātatau ake, ka āwhina tērā ki te whakamāmā i te korenga o ngā kaimahi me te whakapiki ake i te auahatanga. Mō te wā roa, me kimi e Aotearoa he taurite i waenga i te āheitanga o te hapori me ngā hiahia ōhanga.

Ngā Whenua Motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: Te Raruraru o te Mōrearea Āhuarangi me te Whanaketanga

Mō ngā whenua motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko te tirohanga wā roa a te OECD he whakatūpatotanga nui ake i tētahi mahere. Ko ēnei whenua te nuinga o te wā ehara i te mema o te OECD, engari ka whai wāhi rātou ki ngā kōrero mō te tirohanga o te ao mō te wā roa, nā te whakaraerae ki te āhuarangi me ngā hiahia pūtea whanaketanga. Ko te pikinga o te auau o ngā paroro, te pikinga o te taumata o te moana, me te waikawatanga o te moana, i ahu mai i te mahana o te ao, ka whakatuma tika i te tāpoi, te hī ika, me ngā hanganga takutai—ā, ko ēnei tonu ngā mea e ora ai ngā ōhanga o ngā motu.

Ko te rangahau a te OECD mō te huringa āhuarangi me te whanaketanga e kī ana, he nui rawa te utu o te urutau i te utu o te whakaheke hauhā; ā, ko ngā motu tonu kei te kore ngā pūtea tuatahi me te pūtea whakamarumaru e hiahiatia ana. Ki te whakapae ngā tirohanga wā roa ka neke ake te mahana o te ao i te 2°C, ka tino ngoikore te pāpātanga o te tipu pūmanawa o Whītī, o Vanuatu, o ngā Moutere o Horomona, me ētahi atu, nā te mea me whakapau rātou i te wāhanga nui o te GDP ia tau ki te hanga anō i muri i ngā aituā.

I te wā anō, kei a ngā whenua motu anō hoki ētahi rawa motuhake mō te wā roa: ngā rohe ōhanga motuhake whānui, te kanorau koiora, me te pūmanawa hiko o te moana. Ko te hī ika me te whanaketanga o ngā kōhuke i te moana hōhonu ka noho hei puna moni hou, engari ki te kore e pai te whakahaere, ka pakaru ngāwari te taiao. Ko te anga ōhanga kikorangi e whakatairangatia ana e te OECD, he huarahi whakahaere mā ngā whenua motu e rapu ana i te taurite i waenga i te tiaki me te whanaketanga. Ko te wātea o te pūtea whanaketanga, te whaihua o te tohatoha o ngā pūtea āhuarangi, me te whakamahere tūpato o te haumi hanganga, ka whakatau mēnā ka taea e ngā whenua motu te huri mai i te urutau wahangū ki te whanaketanga hihiri.## Ngā pānga ā-rohe: te pānga ngaru puta noa i ngā rohe

Ko ngā kitenga a te OECD mō te wā roa, ehara i te mea he anamata mō ngā whenua mokemoke, engari he hononga tūhono pū i roto i te rohe. Ko ngā huringa o te ōhanga whānui o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, ka rere mā ngā ara whakawhiti moni, tāpoi, me āwhina ki ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. E ai ki ngā raraunga, ko ngā moni whakawhiti mai i tāwāhi i ngā whenua pērā i Whīti me Hāmoa, he nui ake i te 10% o te GDP, ā, ko te nuinga nō ngā manene nō Ahitereiria me Aotearoa. Ki te heke te tipu whakapae o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa nā te tūnga o te hua, ka pikaunga hoki ngā moni whiwhi o waho o ngā moutere.

Engari, ko te manawaroa o ngā moutere mō te āhuarangi e pā ana ki te pūmautanga rautaki o te rohe katoa. Kua uru atu a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki ngā kaupapa e pā ana ki te "haumarutanga āhuarangi o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa", ā, kua oati ki te tuku pūtea āhuarangi me te tautoko hangarau ki ngā moutere. Mō te wā roa, ka puta pea i tēnei mahi tahi he "hapori āhuarangi": ka hoatu e Ahitereiria me Aotearoa te whakapaipai me te hangarau hei utu mō te hōhonutanga rautaki me te whakaurunga ki ngā rawa moana o ngā moutere. Ko ngā whakapae mō te utu waro me ngā kaupapa here whakaheke tukunga i roto i ngā kitenga a te OECD, ka pā ki te utu me te rahi o ēnei mahi tahi.

Ko te hanganga anō o ngā ara hokohoko, he mea nui hoki mō te rohe. Ko ngā hononga kaipuke i waenga i te Northern Territory o Ahitereiria, ngā tauranga o Queensland, me Papua New Guinea me Timor-Leste, e kiia ana he hononga matua mō te mekameka tuku o Āhia-Kiwa ā muri ake. Ko te matapae a te OECD mō te tipu o te hokohoko o te ao, ka whakatau i ngā hua o ngā haumi ki ēnei ara. Ki te kaha haere te whakamarutanga hokohoko o te ao, me te pikinga o te wāhanga o te hokohoko ā-rohe, ka kaha ake te akiaki i ngā whenua o Ōhia ki te "whakakotahitanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa" hei whakakapi i te iti o te tono mai i waho.

Ngā āhua mō te wā roa: ngā taurangi matua i ngā tau 3, 5, 10

I ngā tau e toru e heke mai nei (tae atu ki 2028), ka herea ngā ōhanga katoa o Ōhia e te huringa pikinga utu o te ao me te aronga o ngā kaupapa here moni. Ko ngā kaupapa here a ngā pēke matua o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa e whakatau ana i te manawataki o te whakapaunga whānau me te haumi, ko ngā moutere, me aro rātou ki ngā rerekētanga o ngā utu kai me te pūngao. Ko te ara whakatikatika reiti huamoni i roto i ngā kitenga a te OECD, ka pā ki te toitūtanga o te pūtea o ia whenua.

I ngā tau e rima e heke mai nei (tae atu ki 2030), ka timata ngā āhuatanga hanganga ki te mana. Ka whai mana pea te tikanga whakatikatika waro i ngā rohe o te ao, ā, ka pā nui ki ngā hoko atu waro-nui a Ahitereiria me ngā hoko atu hua ahuwhenua a ngā moutere. I te tahi wā, ki te taea e ngā ōhanga o Ōhia te hopu i ngā whai wāhitanga o ngā kōhuke matua me te hanga taputapu pūngao whakahou, ka whakairo i te huarahi o tō rātou whakapiki ahumahi. Kua whakaatu te kaupapa "Hanga Anamata" a Ahitereiria me te mahere hauwai kākāriki a Aotearoa i te hiahia ki te huri ki ngā wāhanga uara tāpiri teitei.

I ngā tau tekau e heke mai nei (tae atu ki 2035), ka tino kitea ngā pānga tāpiritanga o ngā panonitanga taupori me te hangarau. Ka heke tonu te wāhanga o te taupori kei ngā tau mahi i Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, me whakawhirinaki ki te aunoatanga me ngā kaupapa here manene hei parenga. Ko ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka tū mai te ngaru nui rawa o te taupori rangatahi i roto i te hītori; ā, ki te kore e whakaritea he mahi e rawaka, ka piki te pēhi o te nekeneke kaimahi ā-rohe. Ko ngā whakapae matua i roto i ngā kitenga a te OECD mō te wā roa—pēnei i te nui o te whakapikinga o te hua e te mātauranga horihori (AI), me te whakarerekētanga o te ahuwhenua e te hangarau koiora—ka rerekē ngā pānga ki ngā ahumahi rerekē o Ōhia.

Whakataunga: te whārite kore-ōhanga o te tipu mō te wā roaKo ngā ahuatanga ōhanga wā-roa a te OECD hei whakamahara i a tātou, ehara te anamata o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i te mea i whakatauhia e ngā rawa taiao, e ngā ritenga o mua rānei. Ko ngā mea e tino whakatau ana i te pikinga wā-roa, ko ngā kōwhiringa kaupapa here, te kounga o ngā pūnaha, me te kaha mahi tahi ā-rohe. Me whakatika a Ahitereiria i te “kanga rawa”, me huri ngā moni rawa hei whakapaipai auaha; me kimi a Aotearoa i te taurite hihiko i waenga i te tiaki ahuwhenua me te whakapai ake i ngā umanga; me hanga hoki ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i tētahi anga manawaroa i waenga i te tūpono āhuarangi me ngā hiahia whakawhanake. I te wā e hohonu ana te whakarerekētanga o te ao, ko te kaha o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te huri i te koretake matawhenua hei painga honohono, te huri i te taumahatanga taupori hei nuinga hihiri, te huri i te raru āhuarangi hei wā whakakapinga, ka whakatau i te taumata whai rawa e taea e te reanga e whai ake nei.