Te matapae a te ako mīhini mō te tuku CO2 me te tipu ōhanga: Ngā akoranga mō ngā kaupapa here tōnui o Oceania

Kupu Whakataki

Ko te whakatairite i te hurihanga o te rangi me te tipu ohaoha he wero ā-ao, inarā mō ngā whenua moutere me ngā ohanga takutai whakaraerae. Ko tētahi rangahau i whakaputaina i te *Scientific Reports*, e whakamahi ana i ngā tauira ako mīhini ki te matapae i te hononga o te tukunga CO2 ki te GDP me ngā whenua ahuwhenua i ngā whenua taha o te Moana Īnia (IORA). Ko ōna tikanga me ōna mātauranga e whai take nui ana ki te ara whanaketanga tauwhiro o te rohe o Oceania – inarā ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

E arotahi ana tēnei rangahau ki e whā o ngā mema whenua o IORA: Marēhia, Mauritius, Hīrānaka me Matakāhāka. Ko ēnei whenua, me ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, e pāngia tahitia ana e ngā tūraru āhua-āhuarangi pērā i te pikinga o te taumata o te moana me ngā āhuarangi tino kaha, ā, e whakawhirinaki ana ō rātou hanganga ohaoha ki te ahuwhenua, te tāpoi, me te hokohoko rawa. Ko te tauira XOS-ELM-GA i whakaputaina e te rangahau nei ka taea te matapae tika ake i ngā ia honohono ohaoha-taiao, hei tautoko i ngā kaihanga kaupapa here ki ngā raraunga.

Papamuri: Te Hononga mai i IORA ki Oceania

Kei roto i te IORA e 23 ngā mema whenua, tae atu ki ngā whenua moutere me ngā whenua takutai o te Moana Īnia. He ōrite ngā wero whanaketanga ki ērā o ngā mema o te Huinga Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa (PIF): he iti ngā rawa whenua, he pāngia e te panoni āhuarangi, me te hiahia whakataurite i te tipu ohaoha me te tiaki taiao.

I ngā wā o mua, he hononga pai te tukunga CO2 ki te tipu o te GDP, engari ko ngā huringa whenua ahuwhenua e pāngia ana e ēnei mea e rua. Ko ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa pērā i Whīti, Papua Niu Kini, Hāmoa, e aro ana ki te whakaheke o ngā whenua ahuwhenua me te tukinga o te waro o te tāpoi. Ko ngā raraunga hītori (1960-2020) me te anga tātari e whakamahia ana e te rangahau nei ka taea te whakamahi tika ki ngā rangahau rite i te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Tātari Hōhonu: Ngā Pānga Ohaoha ā-Rohe

Te Wetenga o te Tipu Ohaoha me te Tukunga Waro

E whakaatu ana te rangahau ka taea e ngā tauira ako mīhini te hopu i te hononga kore-āria i waenga i te tukunga CO2 me te GDP. Mō ngā ohanga o Oceania, e tohu ana tēnei he pūmanawa "wetenga" – arā, ka taea te tipu ohaoha me te whakaiti i te kaha tukunga waro. Hei tauira, kua whakatakoto a Aotearoa i te whāinga kore-tuku waro i te tau 2050, engari ko Ahitereiria e tino whakawhirinaki ana ki te hokohoko wahie matū. Ka taea e te tauira nei te whakarato i tētahi taputapu whaihanga mō ngā huarahi rerekē o ēnei whenua e rua.

Te Matapae me te Whakahaere Whenua Ahuwhenua

He pou ohaoha te ahuwhenua mō ngā moutere maha o Oceania. E whakaatu ana te matapae whenua ahuwhenua a te rangahau (i Hīrānaka me Matakāhāka, tata ki te 3% SMAPE anake) ka taea te whakamahi i te tauira ki te arotake i te pānga o te panoni āhuarangi ki ngā whenua whakatipu. Ko ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa pērā i Tonga me ngā Moutere o Hāmoana, he pāngia e ngā āwhā me te pikinga o te taumata moana, ā, mā ēnei matapae ka taea te whakatika wawe i ngā kaupapa here whakamahi whenua.

Ngā Akoranga Kaupapa Here: Te Whakamāoritanga o ngā SDGs

E whakamihi ana te rangahau ka awhina ōna hua ki te whakatutuki i ngā Whāinga Whanaketanga Tauwhiro a te UN (SDGs) – te tuaono (tipu ohaoha), te tekau mā toru (mahi āhuarangi), me te tekau mā rima (taiao whenua). Mō Oceania, ka taea e te tauira nei te tautoko tika i te mahere ara whanaketanga tauwhiro o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa (pērā i te kaupapa "Moana Kikorangi"), hei āwhina i ngā whenua ki te ine i ngā utu taiao i roto i te tāpoi, te mahi ika, me te haumi hiko whakahou.## Whakataurite ā-Rohe: Ahitereiria, Aotearoa me ngā Motu o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

• Ahitereiria: Hei te ohanga nui rawa atu me te whenua whakaputa waro o Ōhia, e kaha hono ana tana tipu ohanga ki te maina me te kawe atu LNG. Ka taea e te tauira te matapae i ngā rerekētanga o te GDP i raro i ngā kaupapa here whakaiti waro, hei whakapai ake i te ara huringa.
• Aotearoa: Ko te ahuwhenua (te miraka kau, te mīti) te tino pūtake o ngā tukunga waro, ā, ko te ahumahi tūruhi e whakawhirinaki ana ki te tukunga waro o ngā rererangi. Ka taea e tēnei rangahau te āwhina i a Aotearoa ki te kimi i te taurite i waenga i te whenua ahuwhenua me te tukunga waro.
• Ngā Motu o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: He iti te GDP o ēnei whenua, engari he tino whakaraerae te taiao. Ko te matapae a te tauira mō te whenua ahuwhenua he mea tino nui, nā te mea ko te whenua te rauemi oranga me te wāhi waro. Hei tauira, kei te taupatupatu te huringa o te rohe whakatipu huka a Whiti i te hōtoke tūruhi; ka taea e te tauira te āwhina ki te whakamahere.

Ngā Ia Roa me Ngā Tirohanga ā-Mua

I ngā tau 3-5 e tū mai nei, i te mea kei te nui haere te mātauranga horihori me te raraunga tirohanga ā-mamao, ka nui ake te whakamahi i ngā tauira pēnei i te rohe o Ōhia. E matapaetia ana ā tae noa ki te tau 2030, ka whakatakoto pea ngā Motu o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i ngā whāinga ine mō ā rātou Whakaritenga ā-Motu e Whakatauhia ana (NDC) i runga i ēnei momo tātaritanga. I tua atu, ka taea te whānui te whakamahi i te algorithm XOS-ELM-GA e whakamahia ana e tēnei rangahau ki te matapae i ngā hua o ngā whakangao pūngao whakahou, pērā i te aromatawai i te takoha o ngā kaupapa pūngao o te rā me te hau ki te GDP.

Mō te wā roa (5-10 tau), ka uru ngā matapaetanga e akiakina ana e te mīhini ki te anga mahi tahi hokohoko ā-rohe o Ōhia. Hei tauira, i roto i te pūtea āhuarangi o Ahitereiria me ngā Motu o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka taea te tono kia whakamahia e ngā kaupapa ēnei momo tauira hei aromatawai i ngā hua ōhanga me te taiao. I te wā tonu, e tika ana kia hāpai a Aotearoa i te whakaurunga o ngā hua matapae ki ngā tawhā whakatika o tana Tikanga Whakatika Tepenga Waro (CBAM) mō ngā hua ahuwhenua hoko atu.

Whakataunga

E whakarato ana tēnei rangahau i tētahi taputapu matapae ōhanga-taiao pono mō ngā whenua IORA, ā, e tino tika ana ōna tikanga ki Ōhia. Mō Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, ka taea e te tauira te tautoko i te ine o ngā kaupapa here whakaheke waro; mō ngā Motu o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, e mahi tika ana ki te tiaki whenua ahuwhenua me te whakamahere urutau āhuarangi. E whakaaro ana te Te Arotake Ōhanga o Ōhia, ko tēnei rangahau whakawhiti rohe e whakaatu ana: ko te whakatauira e akiakina ana e te raraunga te piriti matua kei waenga i te tipu ōhanga me te whakawhanaketanga tauwhiro, me kaha ngā whenua katoa o Ōhia ki te whakamahi i ngā taputapu pēnei, me te whakatairanga i roto i te mahi tahi ōhanga o Āhia me te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

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*Pūtake pārongo: Nature Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-51807-1*