Kua taka te tipu ōhanga o Ahitereiria ki te taumata iti rawa i roto i ngā tau 30: Ngā pānga ā-rohe me ngā wero hanganga.

Ko te tipu ohaoha o Ahitereiria e taka ana ki te taumata iti rawa atu i roto i te 30 tau: Ngā pānga ā-rohe me ngā wero hanganga

Arataki

Kei te wheako a Ahitereiria i te wā roa rawa atu o te tipu iti mai i te paheketanga o te tau 1990. Kua whakaitihia rawatia e Te Rōpū Rangahau Ohaoha a Deloitte ngā matapae GDP i roto i tā rātou pūrongo hou: mō te tau pūtea 2026 e 2.2%, mō 2027 e 1.3%, mō 2028 e 1.9% — e toru tau whai muri i raro iho i te 2%, he mea tuatahi mai i ngā tau 1990. I taua wā, e piki anō ana te pikinga utu (3.6% te toharite tapahi), ā, e 0.3% anake te tipu o te whakaputanga, he iti rawa iho i te toharite o mua.

Ehara tēnei i te pōraruraru ohaoha nui anake i roto i a Ahitereiria. Ko Ahitereiria te ōhanga nui rawa atu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko tōna pōturi e kawe ana i ngā pānga ki Aotearoa me ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mā ngā huarahi tauhokohoko, haumi, me te āwhina. I tēnei tuhinga, ka tātarihia i te tirohanga ohaoha ā-rohe: He aha ngā pūtake hanganga o te pōturi o Ahitereiria? Ka pēhea te pānga ki ētahi atu ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa? Kei hea te ara o te whakawhitinga mō te wā roa?

Horopaki: Mai i te whakaoranga o te mate urutā ki te rua tūpono

I muri i te pikinga V-ahua poto o te ōhanga o Ahitereiria i te tau 2020-21, ka heke haere te kaha o te tipu. Ko te whakaongaonga pūtea i muri mai i te mate urutā me te taiao reiti iti i piki ake ai te pikinga utu, engari kāore e taea e te tuku te whai i te whakawhānui o te tono. I te haurua tuarua o te tau 2025, i whakaora ake ai te mahi a te hunga tūmataiti i te GDP, engari i whai mai ko te hokinga o te pikinga utu. Ko te mea nui ake, i te tīmatanga o te tau 2026, te raru hinu o te Rawhiti Waenga i piki ai te utu o te kaha, me te piki ake o ngā utu waka me te whakaputa, kātahi ka kaha ake te pēhanga utu.

I muri i te whakaitinga 75-piro o ngā reiti pāpāho e Te Peke Tāpui o Ahitereiria (RBA) i te tau 2025, i whakahokia e rātou te whakapikinga 75-piro i te tau 2026, kātahi ka whakakeke anō te taiao reiti. Kei te pā te raru utu ora ki ngā whānau, kei te iti te hiahia haumi a ngā umanga, ā, kua roa te ngoikore o te haumi i roto i ngā whare, te hanganga, te kaha me te kaha whakaputa, ka mutu ka puta mai he pōkai tuku. E ai ki te tohunga ōhanga a Stephen Smith o Deloitte: "Nā te ngaro o te haumi i roto i ngā whare, te hanganga, te kaha me te kaha whakaputa i roto i ngā tau maha, kāore e taea e te tuku o te ōhanga te whai i te tono."

Tātaritanga hōhonu: Ngā pānga ōhanga ā-rohe

#### A Ahitereiria anō: E kitea ana ngā raru hanganga

E whakaatu ana te pūrongo a Deloitte i tētahi taupatupatu matua: ahakoa te kaha o te tipu o te taupori (nā te heke), kei te heke te GDP mō ia tangata me te taumata ora tūturu. Kua tata mutu te tipu o te whakaputanga (0.3%), he iti rawa iho i te toharite 1.7% o te tau 2004-2016. E hono tika ana tēnei ki te ngoikore roa o te haumi ki te hanganga me ngā ahumahi hou. Kua tōmuri a Ahitereiria i roto i te hanganga whakapaipai i te ao matihiko, te whakawhitinga pūngao mā, te hanga matatau, me ērā atu, ki te whakataurite ki ētahi atu ōhanga whakawhanake. Nō te noho tahi o te pikinga utu tiketike me te reiti teitei, ka pēhia te whakapau moni a ngā whānau me te haumi umanga.

Ko te mea tūpato ake, ko te toharite tapihi o te pikinga utu o Ahitereiria kei mua i te nuinga o ngā ōhanga whakawhanake (3.6%, e iti ake ana i Tiorangi). E whakahe ana a Warren Hogan o EQ Economics i ngā mahi a te RBA ki te whawhai i te pikinga utu i muri i te mate urutā, e kī ana he "kore whaihua," me te kī ko te whakaitinga reiti i te tau 2025 he "hapa." Ko te toitū o te pikinga utu e tohu ana ka mau tonu ngā reiti i te taumata teitei mō te wā roa, ka whakapōturi ake i te tipu.#### Ngā Pānga ā-Rohe（区域影响）：Ngā Huanga ki Aotearoa me ngā Whenua o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

Ko te pōnānātanga o te ōhanga o Ahitereiria, ko te hoa hokohoko nui rawa atu o Aotearoa me te puna haumi tuarua nui, ka pā tika ki te ohanga trans-Tasman. Ko ngā taonga e hokona atu ana e Aotearoa ki Ahitereiria e tata ana ki te 20% o te katoa o ngā taonga hoko atu, tae atu ki ngā hua miraka, mīti, wāina, me ngā wāhanga hanga. Ko te ngoikoretanga o te whakapau kaha o Ahitereiria me te hekenga o te whakapono ki te pakihi ka whakaiti i te tono kawemai, ka whakapōuri i a Aotearoa ki te kaha whakaiti o te tono o waho me te ngoikoretanga o tōna ake tipuranga. I tua atu, ko te hekenga o te haumi a Ahitereiria, ko te tikanga ka tārewatia, ka whakarerea rānei ngā kaupapa o Aotearoa e haumitia ana e Ahitereiria (pērā i ngā hanganga matua, ngā rawa tūruhi).

Mō ngā whenua o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, he maha tonu ngā pānga. Ko Ahitereiria tētahi o ngā kaitautoko nui rawa atu o ngā whenua moutere (mā te Papatono Āwhina), ā, ka herea te pūtea āwhina ki te GDP. Ko te pōnānātanga o te tipuranga ka whakaheke pea i te pūtea āwhina tūturu i ngā tau e haere ake nei, ka pā ki te hanga hanganga matua o ngā whenua moutere, ki ngā kaupapa urutau āhuarangi, me ngā ratonga hauora. I te wā anō, ko te tūruhi o te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e tino whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā tūruhi o Ahitereiria - e 40% ki te 60% o ngā tūruhi o te ao e haere ana ki Whīti, Vanuatu, Hāmoa, me ētahi atu, i ahu mai i Ahitereiria. Ko te hekenga o te uara o te taara Ahitereiria me te nui o te utu o ngā tīkiti rererangi (i pāngia e ngā utu hinu ki te Rawhiti Waenganui) ka whakaiti pea i te tono tūruhi, ka pā ki ngā moni a ngā whenua moutere.

I tua atu, ko te pōnānātanga o te panoni pūngao o Ahitereiria he whakatumatuma kāore e tika ana ki ngā whenua moutere. Kei te tūmanako ngā whenua moutere kia noho ko Ahitereiria te kaiārahi o te mahi tahi pūngao whakahou i te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, engari ki te ngoikore te haumi a roto o Ahitereiria mō te wā roa, ka tārewatia pea ana kupu whakaawe mo te mahi tahi pūngao.

#### Ngā Pānga Hokohoko: Ngā Huringa o te Mākete Hoko Atu me ngā Wero o te Rārangi Whakarato

Ko te hanganga hokohoko o Ahitereiria e aro ana ki ngā taonga matua (rautaki, waro, LNG, hua ahuwhenua). Ko te pōnānātanga o te tipuranga ōhanga o te ao (ina koa te ngoikoretanga o te tono a Haina) kua whakaiti i ngā utu. Ko te tūpou o te tipuranga o roto o Ahitereiria e whakaiti anō i te kawemai. Mō te huarahi hokohoko o te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko te hekenga o te tono kawemai a Ahitereiria ka pā ki te hoko atu o Aotearoa i ngā hua miraka, wāina, me ngā mīhini, tae atu ki te hoko atu o Whīti i ōna kākahu, rākau, me ētahi atu.

I tua atu, ko te raru hinu i pāngia ai e te pikinga o te pūkohu, i pā ki ngā utu kawe waka i te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. He maha ngā whenua moutere e whakawhirinaki ana ki te kawemai o te kai me ngā taonga hanga, nā reira ko te pikinga o ngā utu ka whakapiki i te raru o te oranga.

#### Ngā Pānga Haumi: Ka Rere ki hea ngā Moni?

Ko te taiao tipuranga iti, e whakatairanga ana i te rere o te moni ki waho, ki ngā rawa whakamaru rānei. Ko Ahitereiria, he mākete pakari, kei te tohe tonu tōna kaha whakamīharo ki te haumi i te taha o ngā mākete hou, engari ko te pōnānātanga o te tipuranga ka whakaiti i te hiahia mōrearea. I te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko te haumi hanganga matua kua roa e whakawhirinaki ana ki te pūtea a Te Kamupene Whakataunga Hoko Atu o Ahitereiria (EFIC) me te Peeke Whanaketanga Āhia (ADB) me ētahi atu whakahaere. Ki te ngoikore tonu te ōhanga o Ahitereiria, ka whakaitihia pea te kaha tārewa a EFIC, ka akiaki i ngā whenua moutere ki te huri atu ki Haina, ki Hapani, ki ētahi atu hoa whanaketanga rānei.Te waahi o te kaha whakahou (renewable energy) he waahi tupu pea mo Ahitereiria, engari kei te iti rawa te moni whakangao i tenei wa. Ko te ripoata a Deloitte e tohu ana i te ngaro o te moni whakangao ki te kaha, e tohu ana he puhoi te anga whakamua o nga kaupapa matomato penei i te pūngao o te rā, te hau, me era atu. He wero me te whai waahi tenei mo nga whenua moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: ko te wero ko te whakaheke pea a Ahitereiria i tana awhina matomato ki nga whenua moutere, ko te whai waahi ko te kaha o nga whenua moutere ki te kukume i etahi atu moni whakangao (penei i a Hapani me te Kotahitanga o Uropi).

Whakatairite ā-Rohe: Ahitereiria vs Aotearoa vs Ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

Ki te whakatairite ki a Aotearoa, he kino ake te matapae tipu o Ahitereiria. Kua tohu te Pēke Rawa o Aotearoa ka heke pea te reiti huamoni i te tau 2026 hei whakaongaonga i te ōhanga, engari ko Ahitereiria kei te takoha kia piki ake te reiti huamoni. Ko te painga o Aotearoa ko tana iti o te nama, me te pai ake o te whakahaere i te pikinga utu (tae atu ki te waenganui o te tau 2026 e 2.5% pea), engari e anga ana ki te ngoikore o te hiahia a Haina me te kore e tino mohio o te ao. Ko Ahitereiria, na te hohonu o ona raruraru hanganga, ka puhoi ake te whakaora.

Ko nga whenua moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa kei te noho tino whakaraerae. He ōhanga moutere iti, he ngawari ki nga awenga o waho. Ko te puhoi o te tipu o Ahitereiria e whakaiti ana i te hiahia o waho, te awhina me nga moni whiwhi tūruhi. Engari ko etahi whenua moutere (pērā i Papua Nūkini) e whai hua ana i te hoko rawa whenua (LNG, kohuke), mena ka noho teitei te utu o te kaha o te ao, ka taea pea e tenei te whakarato i tetahi parenga. I te nuinga o te wā, kei te kaha haere te wehenga ā-rohe.

Ngā Āhua mō te Wā Roa: Te Whanaketanga i roto i ngā Tau 3-10

1. Wā poto (3 tau): Ko te tipu GDP o Ahitereiria e noho ana ki te 1.5%-2.0%, ka uaua te pikinga utu ki te hoki ki te whāinga (2-3%), ka takoha pea te RBA ki te pupuri i ngā reiti huamoni teitei. Ka heke te whakapaunga moni a ngā whānau, ka ngoikore tonu te whakangao a ngā pakihi, ka piki pea te tatauranga kore mahi mai i te 3.5% ki te 4.5%-5%. Ka puta katoa ngā pānga whakawhiti ki ērā atu rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: ka heke pea te tipu GDP o Aotearoa ki raro i te 1%, ka heke ngā moni whiwhi tūruhi a ngā whenua moutere e 10%-20%.

2. Wā waenga (5 tau): Ki te kore a Ahitereiria e whakamahi i ngā whakarerekētanga hanganga hōhonu (whakarerekētanga tāke, whakangāwari i te whakamahere whenua, whakawhanake i te ahumahi pūngao mā), ka heke pea te tipu tūpono ki raro i te 2% mō ake tonu. Ahakoa te pikinga o te taupori e whakarato ana i te tapeke, ka puta he pēhitanga tōrangapū me te pāpori mai i te mùtù o te tipu mō ia tangata. Ka huri te āhua o te awhina ā-rohe me te tauhokohoko, ka tere pea ngā whenua moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te huri ki Ahia, ki Amerika rānei ki te rapu hoa mahi hou.

3. Wā roa (10 tau): Ka puta pea e rua ngā āhua whakawhitinga i roto i te ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: i tētahi taha, ki te angitu a Ahitereiria ki te hopu i ngā ahumahi hou pēnei i te pūngao hauwai, te hopu waro, te ratonga matihiko, me era atu, ka taea pea te whakahoki ake i te tipu; i tētahi atu taha, i raro i te pēhitanga o te āhua o te rangi, ka tere haere ngā whenua moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te huri ki te ōhanga kahurangi (rawa moana, hī ika, kohuke hohonu moana) me te whenua moutere pūngao whakahou. Me whakatika ngā tikanga mahi tahi ā-rohe (pēnei i te Huihuinga o ngā Moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa) kia urutau ki te āhua hou o te ngoikoretanga o te kaiārahi a Ahitereiria.

Whakataunga### Whakataunga

Kei te whakawhiti a Ahitereiria i tetahi raru "puhore tere iti" hohonu, ko te putake i roto i nga tau o te takamuri whakatikatika me te kore haumi. Ehara tenei i te huringa poto mo te wa poto, engari he raru hanganga. Mo te rohe o Oceania, ko te puhoi o Ahitereiria he whakatupato me te whakakorikori: whakatupato mo te morearea o te tauira tipu e whakawhirinaki ana ki tetahi ohanga kotahi, me te whakakorikori i te whakatairanga i te kanorau ohanga o te rohe, te whakatere i te whakawhitinga kaha me te hanga huarahi hokohoko hou.

I nga tau e heke mai, me arotake ano te rohe o Oceania i nga puna kaha o te tipu ohanga. Me mahi a Ahitereiria i nga whakatikatika hanganga taumaha—mai i te taake, te kaha, te whare ki nga kaupapa here whakaputa. Ko nga whenua o te Moananui-a-Kiwa me whakapakari i to ratou ake kaha, me te whakaiti i te whakawhirinaki nui ki nga awhina a Ahitereiria, me te whakawhanui hoki i nga hononga hokohoko me te haumi ki te Rawhiti me te Tonga o Ahia. Ko tenei raru tipu, tera pea ka waiho hei huringa hitori mo te whakatikatika ohanga o te rohe o Oceania.