2024 Te Tirohanga ā-Ao: Me pēhea a Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e hopu ai i te matapihi matua mō te taunga mārie o te ōhanga?

Kupu Whakataki

I te Hānuere 2024, i whakaputa a Deloitte Insights i te pūrongo 'Tirohanga Ōhanga o te Ao 2024'. E ai ki taua pūrongo, ahakoa kei te pēhia tonu ngā whenua e te pikinga utu, te korenga o ngā kaimahi, te nama me ngā taumahatanga ā-tōrangapū, kei te pai haere ngā āhuatanga o te ōhanga o te ao, ā, kua paku marara te atarangi o te hekenga ōhanga. I ahu mai tēnei pūrongo i ngā tirohanga a ngā tohunga ōhanga o ngā whenua mema e 21, ā, e whakaatu ana i tētahi ahuatanga e heke haere ana, engari he taunga ngāwari tonu pea.

Mō Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ehara te hiranga o tēnei pūrongo i te whakaata noa i te āhuatanga o te ao. Hei wāhanga matua o te mekameka whakarato o Ahia-Kiwa, e tino pāngia ana a Ahitereiria, a Aotearoa me ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e ngā nekehanga pūtea o te ao, e ngā huringa o ngā rawa nui, me ngā rerekētanga o te hanganga hokohoko. Nā reira, mai i te tirohanga ōhanga ā-rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka whakamārama tēnei tuhinga i ngā tohu nui e whā i puta i tēnei tirohanga ā-ao, me ōna pānga pea ki te whanaketanga o te rohe mō te wā roa.

Te Tirohanga Whānui o te Ao: te Huri Mai i te Ārai Pikinga Utu ki te Tiaki Mōrea

Ko te whakatau matua o te pūrongo a Deloitte, i heke tino nui te pikinga utu o te ao i te tau 2023, ko te nuinga o ngā ōhanga nunui i karo i te hekenga ōhanga, kua tino māmā ngā pēhitanga o ngā mekameka whakarato, ā, kei te noho taumaha tonu te mākete mahi i tētahi taumata kāore i kitea i mua. I te tau 2024, ka tata ngā pēke matua ki te whakangāwari i ā rātou kaupapahere moni, nā te mea kei te whakapono ngā kaihanga kaupapahere kua herea te nuinga o te pikinga utu.

Heoi, kei te kohikohi mai ngā tino koretanga hōu: kei te tohe tonu te pakanga ki Ukarene, kua pakū mai ngā pakanga me ngā raruraru hōu ki Te Hauhāinga, kei te taumaha tonu te taukumekume i waenga i ngā ōhanga nui e rua o te ao, ā, kei te hangaia anō te hanganga o te hokohoko me ngā haumi whakawhiti rohe. I whakatūpato a Ira Kalish — te tumuaki tohunga ōhanga o te ao o Deloitte — i roto i te kupu whakataki, ka pā ēnei āhuatanga katoa ki te ara ōhanga i ngā tau e heke mai nei.

Mō Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ko ēnei tohu whānui he rite ki ngā au o te moana e karapoti nei i ngā moutere — mārama te ahunga ki te titiro, engari kei raro ētahi au e kōpikopiko ana. Ko te matapae hekenga o ngā reiti huamoni o te ao, ka āwhina pea ki te whakaheke i te utu o te whiwhi pūtea ā-waho mō Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, engari ka hāpai mai anō pea i te ngoikore o te tono a ngā mākete matua, ā, ka pēhi i ngā kaweake rawa māori. I taua wā tonu, ko te wehewehenga ā-tōrangapū o te hokohoko, kei te panoni i ngā kupenga whakaputa o Ahia-Kiwa, ā, he wero hanganga tēnei mō Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa kua roa nei e whakawhirinaki ana ki te pūnaha hokohoko a ngā whenua maha.

Ahitereiria: te Hurihanga o te Huringa Reiti Huamoni me te Whakaea i ngā Haumi Whaihua

I roto i te tirohanga a Deloitte mō Amerika, i kīia ko te ōhanga o Amerika i karo i te hekenga ōhanga i te wā i heke iho ai te pikinga utu, engari kei te noho tonu ngā mōrea. He tino ōrite te haere o te ōhanga o Ahitereiria ki te huringa pūtea o te ao; ko te tikanga ka tatari te Pēke Rāhui o Ahitereiria kia kite i te āhua o te kaupapahere a te Federal Reserve. Ki te tahuri ngā pēke matua o te ao ki te whakangāwari i te kaupapahere moni, ka āta mimiti haere te pēhitanga o ngā nama whare mō ngā whānau o Ahitereiria, ā, ka piki ake te ngākau titikaha o te ao pakihi.

Engari, ko tētahi wero hōhonu ake e huna ana i roto i te pūrongo, ko te iti o te kaha whakaputa. E ai ki te pūrongo wehe mō Kānata, i heke tonu te kaha whakaputa o ngā kaimahi i roto i ngā hauwhā e ono kua hipa, ā, kei raro iho ngā haumi pakihi i te taumata o mua i te mate urutā — he āhuatanga anō tēnei kei Ahitereiria. Ahakoa kāore a Deloitte i whakaingoa i ia whenua takitahi o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, he ōrite te hanganga ōhanga o te rohe: he nui te whakawhirinaki ki te kaweake rawa māori, ā, ko te pōturi o te whakapikinga o te kaha whakaputa i ngā rāngai hāunga te keri kohuke, he ngoikoretanga nō te katoa.Ko te tau 2024 pea te wā e whakahohoro ai ngā kamupene o Ahitereiria i te whakaaunoatanga me te whakamahinga o te AI. E ai ki te pūrongo a Deloitte, ko Amerika, ko Kānata me ētahi atu whenua e akiaki ana i te haumi ki ngā pūmanawa rorohiko me te rangahau me te whanaketanga. He aronga kaupapa here tēnei e tika ana kia whāia e Ahitereiria me Aotearoa. Ki te whakamahia e rāua te matapihi e heke iho nei te utu nama, hei whakapai ake i ngā tūāpapa matihiko me te mekameka tuku o te pūngao mā, kātahi anō ka taea e ngā ōhanga nui e rua o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa te puta i te “mate o te whakawhirinaki ki ngā huringa o ngā rawa”.

Aotearoa me ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Pākīpika: mai i te huanga o ngā utu ki te whakapakari i te manawaroa

Ko ngā hokonga atu o Aotearoa — ngā miraka, te mīti me te rākau — he tino māmā kia pāngia e te kōpikopiko o te hiahia o ngā kaihoko puta noa i te ao. Ahakoa ka taea e te whakamaurutanga o te pikinga o ngā utu o te ao te whakaheke i te utu o ngā kawemai, mēnā ka ngoikore te tipu ōhanga o ngā kaihoko matua, ka pēhia pea te rahinga o ngā hokonga atu. E ai ki te tātaritanga i roto i te pūrongo a Deloitte mō te taumahatanga o ngā mākete mahi o ngā whenua, ka pā tonu pea te raru o te kore kaimahi āhuwhenua ki a Aotearoa; ko te akiaki i te whakaaunoatanga me te whanaketanga toitū o ngā mahi māra me te mahi miraka te huarahi e whakapiki ai i te kaha whakataetae.

Ko ngā whenua moutere o Te Pākīpika ka rongo i tētahi huinga pānga uaua ake. Nā te noho teitei o ngā reiti huamoni o te ao, kua taumaha ake ki ngā ōhanga tuwhera iti te utunga huamoni o ā rātou nama ki tāwāhi, ā, nā te kaha ake o te uara o ā rātou moni i te aranga ake o te tāpoi, ka ngoikore ake te kaha whakataetae o ngā hokonga atu. Heoi, i te mea e matapaetia ana ka huri ngā peeke matua o te ao ki te whakaheke reiti, mai i te haurua tuarua o te tau 2024 ki te tau 2025, ka ngāwari ake pea ngā āhuatanga o te pūtea whanaketanga ā-ao. Me whakamahi ngā kāwanatanga o ngā whenua moutere i te matapihi, kia nui ake ngā pūtea e rere ai ki ngā tūāpapa manawaroa āhuarangi, kaua ki ngā whakapaunga mō te wā poto.

Ko te kōrero i roto i te pūrongo a Deloitte mō te “panonitanga o ngā tauira hokohoko o te ao” he mea tino nui mā ngā whenua moutere. Ko ngā whenua moutere i whakawhirinaki ai ki te ahuwhenua, te hī ika me te tāpoi i ngā wā o mua, kei te kite ināianei i ngā whai wāhitanga hou i puta mai i te tohatoha anō o ngā mekameka tuku o te ao — hei tauira, te matihiko o ngā tauranga, te whakatūtū pūngao whakahou ki ngā rārangi moutere, me te whakawhānui ake o ngā taura tuku o Te Pākīpika, ka taea te huri i te tonga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mai i tētahi rohe tawhiti hei pona hokohoko hou mō Āhia me Te Pākīpika.

Ngā Pānga ā-Rohe: te āhua rautaki whānui o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

Mai i te tirohanga ā-rohe, e tohu ana te pūrongo a Deloitte e toru ngā kaupapa me whakatutuki ngātahi:

Tuatahi, te hanga anō i ngā ara hokohoko. Nā te whakataetae rautaki i waenga i a Haina me Amerika, me te ia o te kanorau o ngā mekameka tuku o te ao, kua piki ake te tūraru mō te tauira tuku iho a Ahitereiria rāua ko Aotearoa, arā te “rawa hei utu mākete”. Ahakoa kāore ngā whenua moutere o Te Pākīpika i te uru tōtika ki taua whakataetae, nā te mea he wāhi tūhono rātou ki ngā ara kaipuke, ko ngā hanganga tauranga me ngā tūāpapa whakawhiti kōrero ka whakatau i te hononga o te rohe mō te wā roa.

Tuarua, te tere o te panonitanga pūngao.</strong> Mā te tahuri o ngā peeke matua o te ao ki te whakamāmā i te kaupapa here moni, ka iti iho te utu o te pūtea mō ngā kaupapa pūngao whakahou. He nui ngā rawa māori o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mō te hiko rā, te hiko hau me te hauwai kākāriki. Ka taea e Ahitereiria te whakapakari i te hokonga atu o te pūngao mā ki Āhia. Ka taea e Aotearoa te whakarato hiko ngāwari mā te waiariki me te hiko wai. Ka taea hoki e ngā whenua moutere o Te Pākīpika te hono i ngā whatunga hiko ā-rohe hei whakapiki i te haumarutanga o te pūngao. Ehara tēnei i te mahi anake hei whakautu i te panoni āhuarangi, engari he pūkaha whakatipu hou mō te rohe.Tuatoru, ko te āputa hanganga o te mākete mahi.** E kitea ana te koroheketanga o te taupori i Ahitereiria me Aotearoa; ko ngā whenua moutere ia, ahakoa he nui te ōwehenga o te hunga rangatahi, kei te hē te tauritenga o ngā pūkenga ki ngā tūranga mahi. E hāpai tonu ana ngā pūrongo a Deloitte i te korenga o ngā kaimahi, engari kei a Ōhia te āheitanga o tētahi ki te whakakī i te korenga o tētahi. Mā te whakawhanake i te nekehanga kaimahi mō te wā poto me te pūnaha whakamana pūkenga umanga, ka taea te huri i te huanga taupori o ngā whenua moutere hei pūmanawa whakatipu mō Ōhia katoa, me te whakamāmā anō i te korenga kaimahi mō te hanganga matua me te ahuwhenua i ērā whenua e rua.

Rerekētanga ā-Rohe: Te Awhe o te Whakaraeraetanga me te Manawaroa

Ki te tirohia a Ahitereiria, a Aotearoa me ngā whenua moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i runga i te awhe kotahi, he tino rerekē te manawaroa o te ōhanga whānui. He kaupapahere moni motuhake tā Ahitereiria rāua ko Aotearoa, ā, he pūnaha pūtea tino whanake, e āhei ana rāua ki te horomi i ngā pāwera o waho; engari nā te taumata tiketike o ngā nama a ngā whānau me te hē o te taurite o te mākete whare, ka kaha ake te pānga o ngā rerekētanga reiti huamoni ki te whakapaunga. Ko ngā whenua moutere ia, kāore he wātea mō tā rātou ake kaupapahere moni; ko te wātea pūtea ka herea e te whakawhirinaki ki ngā āwhina me ngā whakapaunga mō ngā parekura. Mēnā ka neke te pūtea o waho mā te īrairaka kotahi, ka pā pea tērā ki te whakatauranga nama. Engari, mā te whakaraeraetanga ka nui ake te huanga. Ko te āputa o te haumi hanganga matua e kaha whakahuatia ana i roto i ngā pūrongo a Deloitte, ā, i Ōhia, ko taua āputa tonu te pou whakatipu mō anamata. Ki te taea te waihanga i tētahi anga pūtea whanaketanga e tohatoha ai i te mōrearea, e whakaranu ai hoki i ngā pūtea, e tūmanakohia ana ka kuhu ngā pūtea penihana o te ao ki ngā kaupapa pērā i ngā taura raro i te moana, me ngā kōpae rā mānu, me ngā tauranga atamai o ngā whenua moutere, kia noho ai a Ōhia hei rohe whakaatu o te ao mō te whanaketanga e iti ana ngā tukunga, e tino manawaroa ana.

Ngā Ia o te Wā Roa: Te Titiro mai i te Tau 2024 ki te Tau 2034

Mā te whakaroa ake i te titiro, ko te tirohanga ā-ao o te tau 2024 he rite ake ki te tīmatanga anō i muri i te whakamātautau taumaha. I roto i ngā tau e toru e tū mai nei, ka whakatauhia e te angitu o ngā pēke matua nui ki te whakatutuki i te taunga mārū, mēnā ka anga a Ahitereiria rāua ko Aotearoa ki tētahi whakawhānuitanga hou, ka tūnguru noa rānei te ōhanga. Mēnā ka tere rawa te whakahekenga o ngā reiti, ka puta he mirumiru rawa; mēnā ka tōmuri rawa, ka piki ake te tatauranga kore mahi. Mō ngā whenua moutere, ko te whakaoti i te whakatikatanga anō o ngā nama me te whakatīmata i ngā kaupapa manawaroa ā-āhuarangi i roto i ngā tau e toru te matapihi tino hirahira.

I roto i ngā tau e rima e tū mai nei, mā te hohonutanga o ngā whakaaetanga hokohoko ā-rohe me te whanaketanga o te Huinga o ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa me ngā tikanga a APEC, ka ākina a Ōhia kia kimi i tētahi tūranga hihiri ake i roto i te hanga anō o te mekameka whakarato o te ao. Ka noho pea ngā kōhuke matua a Ahitereiria (arā, te lithium me te nikera), me te ahuwhenua waro me te cashmere whakaora a Aotearoa, me te pūmanawa o ngā whenua moutere ki te hopu waro ā-moana i roto i ā rātou Rohe Ōhanga Motuhake, hei wāhanga o te ira hokohoko hou.

Mā te titiro whakamua ki te tekau tau, ka neke te herenga o te ao mō te huringa āhuarangi mai i ngā oati ki ngā whiu. Ko ngā whenua e kaha ana ki te whakatū tuatahi i ngā tikanga kaute āhuarangi me ngā rautaki whakautu mō te tikanga whakatikatika waro ki ngā taitapa, ka riro i a rātou te mana nui ake ki te tohatoha rawa o te ao. Kāore e tika kia noho noa a Ōhia hei kaiurutaunga hāngū, engari me eke ki runga i te ia o te wā ki te poipoi i ngā ahumahi whakawhiti rāngai, pērā i ngā ratonga taiao, me te pūtea āhuarangi, me te ōhanga moana.

Whakataunga

E kī ana te Tirohanga ā-Ao 2024 a Deloitte ki a tātou, kei te mimiti te pōuritanga o te ōhanga o te ao, engari kua huri kē te āhua o ngā mōrearea. Ko te paunga o te whakawhātikitanga o te moni ehara i te mutunga, engari he tīmatanga mō tētahi panonitanga ahumahi hou. Kia kore ai rātou e aro noa ki ngā raraunga pikinga utu, me titiro whakamua a Te Pēke Rāhui o Ahitereiria, a Te Pūtea Matua o Aotearoa, me ngā mana whakahaere pūtea o ngā whenua moutere, ki te mahere hokohoko whānui me te ngaru o ngā hanganga matua e roa atu ana.Kāore te whakataunga tino nui e hāngai ana ki te pāpātanga o te tupu o te ōhanga i te tau 2024, engari e hāngai ana ki te pātai mēnā ka taea e Oceania te whakamahi i te wā matapihi o te taunga mārū o te ao, ki te whakahuri i te manawaroa o te ōhanga whānui hei kaha ki te whakataetae, me te whakahuri hoki i ngā pēhanga ā-waho hei hihiri mō ngā whakahounga ā-roto. I te wā e huri ana te ao mai i te pikinga o ngā utu ki te tupu, ā, e huri anō ana mai i te tupu ki te haumarutanga, me whakautu ngātahi te rohe katoa i tētahi pātai: E rawaka ana rānei te pūtake o tō tātou ōhanga ki te tū mārō i roto i ngā āwhā me ngā ngaru o te tekau tau e tū mai ana?