《Tirohanga Whanaketanga o Āhia》 Putanga Paenga-whāwhā 2026: Kei tēhea ara tipu te ōhanga o Ōkenia e tū ana?

Tirohanga Whanaketanga Āhia (Asian Development Outlook) putanga Paenga-whāwhā 2026: Kei tēhea ara tipu te ōhanga o Oceania?

Ngā Kōrero Matua

• Kua puta te putanga Paenga-whāwhā 2026 o te Tirohanga Whanaketanga Āhia (ADO) ki te paetukutuku whaimana a ADB, i te wāhanga "Matapae Ōhanga". He tuhinga anga tēnei: ka whakauru i ngā ōhanga matua o Āhia me ngā mema whakawhanake o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki roto i te pūnaha matapae kotahi, nā reira ka taea te whakamātautau i ngā whakapae mō te taiao waho o ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
• E toru ngā hononga whakawhiti tino hira o te ōhanga o Oceania: ngā moni whiwhi mai i te hoko atu i ngā rawa me te pūngao, te tāpoi me ngā moni whakawhiti a ngā kaimahi, me te pūtea whakawhanake me te hangahanga. E tino whirinaki ana ēnei e toru ki ngā whakatau mō te taha tono o Āhia, o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa.
• E 14 ngā mema whakawhanake a ADB i te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ā, he huarahi kaupapa motuhake tōna mō "Te Whakaraeraetanga me ngā Motu Iti Whakawhanake (FCAS-SIDS)". Ko te tikanga, he pouaka taputapu kaupapa here motuhake tō ngā motu mō te manawaroa ki te āhuarangi, te whakawhiti pūngao me te pūtea ki te rangai tūmataiti.
• He mema a Ahitereiria rāua ko Aotearoa ki ADB, engari kāore rāua i roto i ngā mema whakawhanake tono nama a ADB i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ko te tūranga o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i te rohe e tata ana ki te puna tono, te kaiwhakarato pūtea me te kaimahi, kāore e noho ana hei kaupapa matapae.
• I te wā roa, kei te huri te kōrero mō te tipu o Oceania mai i te "kaiwhiwhi āwhina" ki te "pūtahi o te mekameka whakarato ā-rohe me te whakawhiti pūngao"; he mea nui ake tēnei huringa kia whaia i ngā nama tipu o tētahi tau kotahi.

Kupu Whakataki

Kua whakaputaina e te paetukutuku whaimana a te Pēke Whakawhanake Āhia (ADB), i te wāhanga "Matapae Ōhanga", te putanga Paenga-whāwhā 2026 o te Tirohanga Whanaketanga Āhia (Asian Development Outlook, ADO). Hei pukapuka ōhanga matua ā-tau a ADB, kua whakaarohia tonutia te putanga Paenga-whāwhā ko te tirohanga ōhanga ā-rohe nahanaha tuatahi o te tau, e kapi ana i ngā mema whakawhanake o Āhia me Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Mō Oceania, kāore te hiranga o tēnei pukapuka i te rerekētanga o tētahi ōrau o te tipu. Ko tōna uara tūturu, ka whakauru ia i ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa me ngā ōhanga matua o Āhia ki roto i te anga matapae kotahi: ina rerekē te tono o Āhia, te utu pūngao, te utu kaipuke, ngā āhuatanga pūtea o te ao rānei, ka pēhea te roa me te nui o te pānga ki ngā pūtea, ki ngā moni waho me ngā mahi a ngā motu—he take e whai pānga tahi ana ki ngā kaituku pūtea ā-rohe, ki ngā kaikirimana hangahanga me ngā umanga whakawhanake.

Kāore tēnei tuhinga e tukurua i ngā nama matapae; engari ka whakautu i ngā pātai e whā: ka pēhea te pānga o tēnei tirohanga ki te ōhanga o Oceania? He aha ngā ia ā-rohe e kitea ana i muri? He aha te tikanga mō Ahitereiria, mō Aotearoa me ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa? He pēhea ngā huringa hanganga ka puta i roto i ngā tau e 3, e 5, e 10?

Horopaki: Te hanganga ā-rohe o tētahi pukapuka tirohanga

I whakatūria a ADB i te tau 1966, ā, ko 2026 te huritau 60 o tōna whakatūnga; e 69 ōna mema ināianei, ā, e 50 o ērā nō te rohe o Āhia me Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. I roto i āna raina hua mātauranga, ko "Matapae Ōhanga" e tū ana i te taha o "Raraunga me Ngā Tatauranga" me "Ngā Whakaputanga me Ngā Tuhinga", ā, he tūāpapa whakamārama e whakamahia nuitia ana e ngā kāwanatanga mema, e ngā umanga whakatau reiti me ngā kaituku pūtea o te ao. Ko Masato Kanda te Tumuaki o nāianei.Ki tā te whakatakotoranga pakihi ā-rohe, ko ngā mema whakawhanake o te Pēke Whakawhanake Āhia (ADB) i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ko Kuki Airani, Te Whenua Tūhono o Micronesia, Whītī, Kiripati, Moutere Māhara, Nauru, Niue, Pārau, Papua Nūkini, Hāmoa, Moutere Horomona, Tonga, Tūvalu me Vanuatu, 14 katoa ngā ōhanga. Ka hono ki ēnei ko ngā tari ā-rohe pērā i te Tari Whakapā me te Whakarite o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, te Tari ā-Rohe Iti o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, me te anga kaupapa matua whakahaere e hāngai ana ki te āhuarangi, te pūngao, te waka, te hangarau matihiko, te whakahaere mōrearea aituā, te ahuwhenua me te haumaru kai, te mahi tahi ā-rohe, te mahi tahi tūmatanui-tūmataiti (PPP), me te ira tangata.

I runga i tēnei, ka whakaritea e te ADB te “Whakaraeraetanga me ngā Whenua Whakawhanake Moutere Iti” hei kāwai kaupapa motuhake. Mō ngā ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa he iti te taupori, he ngoikore te tūāpapa pūtea, he nui te pā o ngā aituā, ehara tēnei whakarōpūtanga i te taipitopito hangarau, engari he whakaritenga tūāpapa matua e whakatau ana mehemea ka whiwhi rānei rātou i ngā rauemi pūtea mō te wā roa ake, me ngā tikanga pai ake.

Me whakamārama ake, he mema tonu a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i te ADB, engari ehara rāua i ngā mema whakawhanake e whakahaere pūtea tarewa ana a ADB i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ko te tikanga, kāore te ADO e matapae i te āhua o te ōhanga o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa; ka puta kē rāua i roto i tēnei anga hei taha tono, hei kaiwhakarato hoki i te pūtea me te kaimahi.

Tātaritanga Hōhonu: Ngā Huarahi Whakawhiti e Toru o te Ōhanga o Ōheania

Tuatahi, Te Kaweake Taonga me te Pūngao: Te “Whakaata” o ngā Matapae Tupu o Āhia

Ko te hau māori LNG me ngā kohuke o Papua Nūkini, te rākau o Moutere Horomona, ngā hua ahuwhenua me ngā hua ika o Whītī me Hāmoa, koinei te hanganga matua o ngā moni whiwhi kaweake o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. He tino arotahi te āhuatanga o tēnei hanganga: torutoru noa ngā taonga, torutoru noa ngā kaihoko, torutoru noa ngā ara kaipuke.

Nō reira, ko te whakatau a te ADO mō te hiahia o ngā ōhanga matua o Āhia (tae atu ki Haina, Inia, Hapani, ngā mema o ASEAN, me ērā atu) he matapae autaki mō te taha moni whiwhi o ngā whenua kaweake o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ko ngā rerekētanga o ngā mahi ahumahi me te hiahia pūngao kawemai o Āhia ka rere mā ngā utu kirimana roa, te utu tāpiri o nāianei, me te whakaritenga whakatakoto kaipuke ki te pūtea o ngā moutere. He whaihua ake te mārama ki tēnei i te maumahara ki tētahi tau tipu ā-whenua.

Tuarua, Tāpoi, Moni Whakawhiti me te Neke Kaimahi: Te Tairongo ki te Hiahia o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa

He nui te whirinaki o ngā ōhanga pērā i Whītī, Hāmoa, Tonga, Vanuatu ki ngā moni tāpoi me ngā moni whakawhiti, ā, ko ngā manuhiri me ngā puna moni whakawhiti e arotahi ana ki Ahitereiria me Aotearoa. Nā te mea kāore a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i roto i te horopaki matapae o te ADO, ko te tirohanga o ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e whakapae ana i ngā whakapae mō te whakapaunga a ngā whānau, te mākete mahi, me ngā whakaritenga neke kaimahi whakawhiti (pērā i te mahi kaimahi ā-wā, me ngā tikanga neke kaimahi) o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa.

Ki te noho tūmanako nui ēnei whakapae, ka piki tahi ngā matapae mō te pūkete o nāianei me ngā moni whiwhi a ngā whānau o ngā moutere. Mō ngā kaipupuri pūtea, ki te tirotiro i te pono o tētahi tirohanga ā-rohe, me titiro tuatahi ki tana whakahaere i ngā whakapae mō te hiahia o waho, kaua ki ngā tau whakamutunga.

Tuatoru, Te Pūtea Whakawhanake me te Tūāpapa: Te Parepare o te Wāhi PūteaKa ngoikore haere ngā matapaetanga tipu, ka whāiti haere te wāhi pūtea o ngā whenua moutere, ka piki ake te whirinakitanga ki ngā pūtea taurewa whakaheke utu me ngā takoha. Ko ngā taputapu a ADB pēnei i te pūtea mō te rāngai tūmatanui, te pūtea mō te rāngai tūmataiti, ngā hononga pūtea me ngā rauemi pūtea, koinei tonu te pare o tēnei wāhanga.

He mea nui hoki ngā tikanga whai wāhi a te rāngai tūmataiti. Ko ngā tauranga, ngā whatunga hiko, ngā taura raro moana, te tuku wai me ngā kaupapa whakaputa hiko whakahou, e kaha haere ana te whakatinana mā te tauira mahi tahi tūmatanui-tūmataiti. Ki ngā kaituku pūtea hangahanga, ko te take o ADO ko te hoatu i tētahi paerewa tonotono puta noa i ngā tau, puta noa i ngā ōhanga, hei whakahāngai i ngā whakapae mō te hua o te kaupapa me te utu mōrearea ā-motu.

Regional Implications（Ngā Pānga ā-Rohe）

Mō Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa whānui, kei te whai tēnei momo tirohanga ā-rohe i te tūranga o tētahi “reo tūhono”. Ka kōrero ngā tari pūtea o ia whenua, ngā whakahaere ā-rohe (pērā i te Pacific Islands Forum, te Pacific Community), ngā tari whakahaere o te ao me ngā kaituku pūtea arumoni, i runga i te huinga whakapae tonotono ōrite. Ka ōrite haere ngā whakapae, ka heke te utu waku o ngā tono hangahanga ā-rohe, te utu inihua, me ngā matapaki whakatauranga ā-motu.

Tuarua, ko te noho ā-rohe o ngā take pūngao. Kei roto te hanganga pūngao o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i te wā whakawhiti: he whirinakitanga tonu ki te hau māori whakarewa me te diesel mō te whakaputa hiko, ā, kei te piki hoki te hiahia ki te whakawhānui i te hiko rā, te hiko hau me te whakahou whatunga hiko. Ko ngā tikanga mahi tahi ā-rohe i raro i ngā take pūngao me te huringa āhuarangi a te ADB, e māmā ake ai te whakauru i ngā kaupapa a tētahi whenua moutere takitahi ki ngā mahere pūtea me te hangarau puta noa i ngā whenua. Ehara i te mea ko te hanganga whakaputa hiko anake e huri ana, engari ko ngā hononga whakahaere pūngao ā-rohe hoki.

Tuatoru, ko te whakapūtea i te manawaroa āhuarangi me te mōrearea aituā. Ka uru ngā mate aituā ki ngā ara pūtea wā roa, kāore ngā hangahanga parekura, ngā pūnaha whakatūpato me ngā whakaritenga inihua e noho noa ana hei take atawhai tangata, engari ka noho hei wāhanga o te pūmautanga tonotono. Koinei hoki te take i noho motuhake ai ngā motu iti whakawhanake hei kāwai take.

Ka mutu, ko te tāpiringa o ngā tikanga mahi tahi ā-rohe. Ka hangaia he hanganga papanga maha i waenga i ngā pūhara pērā i te Pacific Islands Forum, te Pacific Community, me APEC, me ngā kaupapa ā-rohe iti a ADB. Mō ngā kamupene tohutohu o te ao me ngā kairangahau kaupapa here, ko te mea tika kia aroturukitia ko ngā huringa o ngā kaupapa matua o te tohatoha rauemi i waenga i ēnei tikanga.

Whakatauritenga ā-Rohe: Ngā Tūranga Rerekē e Toru

Ko Ahitereiria te puna o te pūtea me te hiahia i roto i te rohe: he ōhanga kaweake rauemi, he motuhake te huringa o te moni me te pāpātanga huamoni, ā, he kaiwhai wāhi matua ki ngā rerenga mahi me te pūnaha āwhina o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Kāore ia i roto i te horopaki matapae a ADO, engari ko tōna hiahia ā-roto e whakatau ana i te āhua o ngā whiwhinga moni o ngā whenua moutere maha.

Ko te hanganga ōhanga o Aotearoa he arotahi ake, ko te kaweake o ngā hua ahuwhenua pērā i te miraka, me te wāhanga ratonga te mea nui, ā, he rite tonu te kaha o ōna hononga mahi me te āwhina ki Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ko te pānga o tōna huringa ōhanga ki ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te Tonga, he tere ake i te tere o te rere o te hiahia o Āhia.Kei tērā pito o te āwhata hanganga ngā motu o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa: he iti te rahi o te ōhanga, he tino arotahi ngā kaweake me ngā mātāpuna manuhiri, ā, he tino tairongo ki ngā pā o te āhuarangi me ngā utu kawe waka moana. Ehara te hononga o ēnei e toru i te whakarōpūtanga ngāwari noa o “whakawhanake–e whakawhanaketia tonutia ana”, engari he porowhita kati o te hiahia–te kaimahi–te whakapaipai: ka homai a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i ngā mātāpuna manuhiri, i ngā ara kaimahi, i te whakapaipai; ka homai a Āhia i te hiahia mō ngā taonga me ngā taonga whakanao; kei ngā motu te tūranga rua: te tuku rawa me te tuku kaimahi.

Ngā ia roa: 3 tau, 5 tau, 10 tau

I roto i ngā tau e 3 kei te tū mai, ko ngā taurangi e tino tika ana kia arohia ko te toitū o ngā nama me te wātea o te pūtea mō te āhuarangi. Mā te kore taurite o ngā hiahia whakatikatika i muri i ngā parekura me ngā whiwhinga pūtea tāke e whakatau mēnā ka hiahiatia e ētahi motu he whakaritenga pūtea whakatikatika mō te wā roa ake.

I roto i ngā tau e 5 kei te tū mai, ko te whakawhitinga pūngao me te hononga matihiko te tino puna o ngā rerekētanga tipu. Ko ngā ōhanga ka taea te whakatika i te whatunga hiko, te whakauru i te hiko whakahou, me te whakapai ake i ngā taura matihiko o raro moana me te hononga rererangi, ka whiwhi painga tāpiri ki te taha o te tāpoi me te ahumahi māmā.

I roto i ngā tau e 10 kei te tū mai, mā te hanganga taupori e ārahi te kōrero ā-rohe. Kei te raru ētahi motu i te rere tonu o te taupori ki waho me te kore kaimahi; ko ngā ōhanga nui ake pērā i a Papua Niu Kini pea ka tuku i te painga taupori. Ko ngā whakaritenga kua whakaturetia mō te neke taupori me te neke kaimahi, tērā pea ka huri mai i ngā kaupapa here rangitahi ki tētahi wāhanga roa o te whakakotahitanga ōhanga ā-rohe.

I taua wā tonu, i muri i te 60 tau o te Pēke Whakawhanake Āhia, ka uru ia ki tētahi huringa rautaki hou. Ko tōna hanganga whakapaipai, te ōrau pūtea a te rāngai tūmataiti, me te tautoko rauemi ki ngā take āhuarangi, ka pā tika ki ngā herenga pūtea o waho ka wātea ki ngā motu o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa.

Whakamutunga

Tuatahi, ko te uara nui o tēnei tirohanga ā-rohe ehara ko ngā tau, engari ko ngā whakapae. He nui ake te tairongo o ngā ōhanga o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa ki te hiahia o waho i te toharite ā-rohe, nō reira he nui ake te hiranga o te mārama ki ōna whakapae huna i te maumahara noa ki ngā whakatau.

Tuarua, kei te neke te kōrero tipu o Oceania: mai i te “kaiwhiwhi āwhina” ki te noho hei pūtahi mō te mekameka whakarato ā-rohe me te whakawhitinga pūngao. He pōturi tēnei huringa, engari he mārama te ahunga, ā, he nui ake tōna kaha ki te whakatau i te rerenga whakapaipai mō te wā roa i ngā rerekētanga tere o te tau kotahi.

Tuatoru, kei a Ahitereiria, Aotearoa me ngā motu o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa ngā mahi rerekē i roto i te rohe kotahi; ko ngā whakatau e kōrero ana mō tētahi whenua kotahi anake ka hē. Ko ngā whakaritenga pūtea, pūngao me ngā kaimahi i te taumata ā-rohe, koinei ngā taurangi e tino tika ana kia whai i ngā tau tekau kei te tū mai.

*Whakamārama tikanga me ngā raraunga: I tuhia tēnei tuhinga i runga i ngā whārangi kua whakaputaina whānuitia ki te paetukutuku o te Pēke Whakawhanake Āhia mō te putanga o Paenga-whāwhā 2026 o te Asian Development Outlook, tōna hanganga pakihi ā-rohe me tōna anga whakarōpū take; kāore e whakamahi raraunga kāore anō kia whakaputaina; mō ngā uara matapae whenua motuhake, me whai i ngā mea kua whakaputaina ōkawatia e taua pukapuka.*

Ngā mātāpuna- Asian Development Outlook April 2026 — Te Pēke Whanaketanga o Āhia: https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/april-2026 - Wāhanga Economic Forecasts: https://www.adb.org/outlook - Ngā mahi a ADB i te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: https://www.adb.org/pacific - Ngā raraunga me ngā tatauranga a ADB: https://www.adb.org/data - Te whakaraerae me ngā Whenua Motu Iti e Whanake Ana (FCAS-SIDS): https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/fcas-sids - Ngā kaupapa pūngao a ADB: https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/energy - Ngā kaupapa huringa āhuarangi a ADB: https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/climate-change - Ngā kaupapa mahi tahi ā-rohe a ADB: https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/regional-cooperation - Ngā kaupapa pātuitanga tūmatanui-tūmataiti a ADB: https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/public-private-partnerships - Te Rautaki 2030 a ADB: https://www.adb.org/who-we-are/strategy-2030