Te Huringa Rautaki a Amerika ki te Whakawātea Hokohoko: Ngā Whai Wāhitanga me Ngā Wero mō te Ōhanga o Ōhia

Kupu Whakataki

I te whakapuakanga a Te Tari Tatauranga o Amerika i te tau 1890 kua mutu te rohe o te uru, kāore ngā titiro a ngā tāngata o Amerika i mutu te neke whaka-te-hauāuru — i whakawhiti atu rātou i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka kite i ngā mākete whānui o Ahia. Neke atu i te kotahi rau tau, kua noho tēnei rohe hei pokapū ōhanga o te ao. I te tau 2025, i roto i ngā ōhanga nui e rima o te ao mō te GDP whakaingoa, kei roto a Amerika, Haina me Hapani i te rohe o Āpia. Heoi, kua huri kē te kaupapahere hokohoko a Amerika i ngā tau tata nei: mai i te whakatairanga i te hokohoko noa maha-taha ki ngā tāke taunga me ngā whiriwhiringa tauhokohoko, ā, e pā hirahira ana tēnei hurihanga ki te katoa o te taiao ōhanga o te rohe, tae atu ki Ōceania.

E kī ana te pūrongo hou rawa atu a te American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), arā, "Look West, America", ko te whakamaru hokohoko e whakakino ana i te ōhanga me te haumaru o Amerika, ā, e whakatakoto ana i tētahi anga "whakanoatanga hokohoko rautaki", e tohe ana kia whakahaerehia te tuwhera hokohoko ki ngā whenua o Āpia-Kiwa, i te mea e whakaae ana ki ngā āhuatanga tōrangapū-ā-mātāwhenua. Hei aha tēnei hurihanga kaupapahere mō ngā ōhanga o Ōceania? Me pēhea e tiakina ai e Ahitereiria, Aotearoa me ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ō rātou ake painga i roto i te piki haere o te whakataetae i waenganui i a Amerika me Haina? Mā tēnei tuhinga e tātari ai i te kaupapa mai i te tirohanga ōhanga ā-rohe.

Papamuri: Te Whanaketanga o te Kaupapahere Amerika mō Āpia-Kiwa

Ko te noho ōhanga a Amerika i Āpia-Kiwa e hoki atu ana ki te rautau 19. Ko Siam (Thailand) te whenua Ahia tuatahi i haina tiriti ki a Amerika i te tau 1833, ā, ko te hokohoko te tino kaupapa. I muri i te Pakanga Tuarua o te Ao, i te nekehanga o te pokapū ōhanga o te ao mai i Te Moana Ranatiki ki te Raki ki Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka kaha haere ngā hononga hokohoko o Amerika ki te rohe. I te tau 2011, i whakapuakina e Obama i te pāremata o Ahitereiria ka noho a Amerika hei "whenua o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa" mō te wā roa ki ngā take ā-rohe, ā, ko te hui o te haumaru me te whakanoatanga hokohoko te ngako o tana kaupapahere.

Heoi, mai i te tau 2016, kua tino huri te kaupapahere hokohoko a Amerika. E toru ngā kāwanatanga i āta mahue haere i te mahi whakamahi i ngā whakaaetanga hokohoko noa (FTA) me ngā anga maha-taha hei tikanga, ka huri ki ngā tāke taunga me ngā arai kore-tāke, e ngana ana ki te hanga anō i ngā hononga hokohoko mā ngā whakaritenga takirua. Ehara tēnei hurihanga i te whakatikatika rautaki noa iho, engari e whakaata ana i ngā āwangawanga whānui o roto o Amerika mō te whakaaetanga hokohoko o muri i te pakanga. E ai ki te pūrongo a AIER, ko tēnei āhuatanga kaupapahere hou nā te "matau hōu" me te "mauī whakamua" i akiaki, ā, ko tōna pūtake te whakaaro ko te whakanoatanga hokohoko i whakakino i te ōhanga o Amerika — he hē, he kino hoki tēnei whakaaro.

Tātari Hōhonu: Te Whakamārama Ōhanga o te Whakanoatanga Hokohoko

E whakaatu ana te pūrongo a AIER ka taea e te whakanoatanga hokohoko te whakatere i te tipu o te GDP mō ia tangata. E whakaatu ana tētahi rangahau, mēnā ka heke iho te tāke taunga mō ngā rawa whakapaipai, rawa takawaenga rānei mā te 25 ōrau, ka neke ake te tipu ōhanga o te whenua whakanoa i tō te whenua kore-whakanoa mā te 0.75 ki te 1 ōrau. Ko te tātaritanga a te IMF i te tau 2017 e whakatau ana hoki, mō ia pikinga ōrau kotahi o te tuwhera hokohoko, ka piki ake te moni whiwhi tūturu mō ia tangata mā te 2 ki te 6 ōrau. Ko te mea nui ake, ko ngā painga oranga ka puta mai i te hokohoko, e 4.5 whakareanga ake ai te pānga pai ki ngā whānau whai hua iti i tō ngā whānau whai hua nui, nā te mea he tino aro nui atu te hunga rawakore ki ngā utu.Ko te whakawāteatanga, mā te whakawhānui i te wehewehenga mahi puta noa i ngā rohe, ka piki ake te whaihua o ngā umanga me te hua o ngā kaimahi, nā reira ka piki ake ngā utu tūturu. Waihoki, mā te whakataetae nō tāwāhi, ka ākina ngā umanga kia pakari ake, kia urutau ake. Ko ēnei tohenga he tūāpapa ōhanga mārō mō te hokinga a Amerika ki te ara hokohoko noa.

Heoi anō, ko te hurihanga whakamarumaru o nāianei, ehara i te mea ka whakaheke noa i te kaha whakataetae o Amerika, engari ka kawea mai anō hoki te rangirua ki ngā whenua o Oceania e whakawhirinaki ana ki te hokohoko Āhia-Kīwa.

Ngā pānga ā-rohe: ngā whaiwāhitanga me ngā wero o Oceania

Ahitereiria me Aotearoa: te whakawhirinaki hokohoko i waenga i ngā taha e rua

Hei wāhanga o te ōhanga Āhia-Kīwa, ko te nui o te tauhokohoko a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki a Haina, he ōwehenga nui rawa atu o te tapeke o ā rāua tauhokohoko ki tāwāhi. Nā te hurihanga kaupapa here a Amerika kua nui ake te matatini o te hanganga hokohoko ā-rohe. I tētahi taha, ki te tāpiri tonu a Amerika i ngā tāke ki ngā taonga nō Āhia, ka puta pea he tauhohenga mekameka, ka whakapōrearea i ngā mekameka whakarato, ā, ka pā tika mai ki ngā kaweake rawa me ngā mākete hua ahuwhenua a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa. I tētahi atu taha, ki te whakatinana a Amerika i te whakawāteatanga hokohoko rautaki, me te whakaheke i ētahi ārai motuhake i roto i te anga haumaru, ka whai wāhi a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki te tū hei piriti i waenga i a Amerika me Haina, ki te whakatika anō i te hanganga o ā rāua mākete kaweake.

He hōhonu ngā hononga ōhanga o Ahitereiria rāua ko Aotearoa ki a Amerika me Haina. Kei te uru tahi rāua ki te Whakaaetanga Pāhekoheko Ōhanga ā-Rohe Whānui (RCEP) me te Whakaaetanga Pāhekoheko Matawhānui, Whakamua hoki, Whakawhiti i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa (CPTPP), ā, e āhei ana rāua ki te whakarite i ngā ture hokohoko i roto i ngā anga kanorau. E tūtohu ana te pūrongo a AIER, me whakatutuki a Amerika i ngā whakaaetanga rua-taha, taha-maha rānei me ngā whenua o Āhia-Kīwa, kaua ko te whakawhirinaki anake ki ngā hononga haumaru ki ngā whenua hoa. Mā tēnei ka whai wāhi a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki te hōhonu ake i ngā whiriwhiringa hokohoko me Amerika, engari me pupuri hoki i te ngāwari rautaki i a rāua e whakataurite ana i te whakawhirinaki ki te mākete o Haina.

Ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: te aronga hōu o te ōhanga matawhenua

Mō ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, pērā i a Whītī, Papua Nūkini, me Hāmoa, ehara te 'titiro ki te uru' a Amerika i te mea hōu, engari nā te kaha ake o te whakataetae rautaki, kua nui ake te aro me ngā rauemi i kawea mai ki a rātou. I ngā tau tata nei, he nui te haumi a Haina mā te kaupapa 'Whītiki me te Ara' ki ngā hanganga i ngā motu, ā, ko Amerika me ōna hoa (otirā ko Ahitereiria me Aotearoa) kei te kaha ake te whai wāhi mā ngā tikanga pērā i te 'Pāhekoheko o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa'.

Ko te tikanga o te whakawāteatanga hokohoko mō ngā motu, ehara i te mea ko te hokohoko taonga noa iho, engari ko te pūtea whanaketanga me te manawarō āhuarangi. E tūtohu ana te pūrongo a AIER, me whakauru te whakahekenga o ngā ārai kore-tāke ki roto i te whakawāteatanga hokohoko rautaki, pērā i ngā paerewa me ngā whakaritenga tāhu, ā, he pānga nui tēnei ki ngā kaweake ahuwhenua motuhake me ngā kaweake kaimoana a ngā motu. Waihoki, ko te hokohoko ratonga ā-rohe (pērā i te tāpoi) me te neke haere o ngā kaimahi, he wāhi tupu anō mō te ōhanga o ngā motu. Ki te taea e Amerika te whakatairanga i tētahi anga hokohoko whai wāhi whānui ake, ka āwhina tēnei i ngā motu ki te hono atu ki te mekameka uara Āhia-Kīwa, kaua mā te noho hei taputapu rautaki noa iho.

Ngā āhuatanga o te wā roa: ko Oceania i ngā tau e toru, e rima, e tekau kei mua

Mō ngā tau e toru kei mua, ka noho tonu pea te kaupapa here hokohoko a Amerika i te wā tāwariwari, engari ko ngā pōtitanga waenga o 2026 me te pōtitanga matua o 2028 ka whakatau i tōna aronga. Me whakareri ngā whenua o Oceania ki te aro atu ki ngā rerekētanga mō te wā poto, pērā i ngā pānga tāke me te whakatikatika i ngā mekameka whakarato.I roto i ngā tau e 5 kei te heke mai, ki te whai a US i te huarahi 'whakawātea rautaki o te hokohoko', me te haina i ngā whakaaetanga tuwhera hou ki ngā hoa pērā i Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, me te whakapūmau i ngā hononga ōhanga tata atu ki ngā whenua o te tonga o Āhia me ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, kātahi ka tūmanakohia a Ōhiania hei pokapū whai-uara-nui e hono ana i Amerika ki te Raki me Āhia. Ko te panonitanga pūngao o Ahitereiria (pērā i te hauwai), ko ngā ratonga matihiko o Aotearoa, ko te ōhanga moana o ngā moutere, ka whiwhi pea i ētahi atu haumi.

I roto i ngā tau 10 kei te heke mai, ka uaua ake te taurite o te kaha ā-rohe. E tohe ana te pūrongo a AIER me noho tonu a US ki ngā hononga hokohoko e matapaetia ana ki ngā whenua katoa o te rohe (tae atu ki Haina), kaua e rapu i te wehenga katoa. Mō Ōhiania, ko te Āhia-Kiwa poropori-maha e tohu ana i ngā kōwhiringa kanorau ake me te kaha ake ki te whiriwhiri, engari me whakapakari anō i tōna ake kaha ōhanga, ā, me whakaiti i te whakawhirinaki ki tētahi mākete kotahi.

Whakatau

Ka whakatau te tirohanga pono a US ki te uru i te anamata o te tikanga ōhanga o Āhia-Kiwa. Ko te tino māramatanga o te pūrongo a AIER: ehara te ārai-ki-waho i te whakautu, engari mā te whakawātea rautaki o te hokohoko e tautoko i ngā hiahia ōhanga me ngā hiahia rautaki o US. Mō ngā whenua katoa o Ōhiania, e tika ana anō tēnei whakatau. Ko ngā whenua whakawhanake pērā i Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, me whakamahi i ō rātou ake painga pūnaha, hei akiaki i ngā ture hokohoko ā-rohe kia anga whakamua ki te tuwhera me te mārama; ko ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, me hopu i ngā whai wāhi ka puta mai i te whakataetae matawhenua, me tono kia nui ake ngā rawa whanaketanga, ā, me karo anō i te urunga ki ngā pakanga o ngā whenua nunui.

Kei te tuwheratanga me te whairawa o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa te anamata o Ōhiania. Inā arotake anō a US i tana kaupapa here hokohoko, kaua a Ōhiania e tatari wahangū, engari me āta whai kia hangaia he kaupapa ōhanga ā-rohe e taurite ana, e uru katoa ana, e tū pakari ana.