Ko te utu a Trump me te pakanga ki Iran e whakahou ana i te rere o ngā hua ahuwhenua o te ao – te pānga ki te rohe o Oceania.

Ko te whakapakaritanga o te mana whakahaere e whakahou ana i ngā utu hua ahuwhenua o te ao

I waenganui i te tau 2025 ki te 2026, i kite te mākete hua ahuwhenua o te ao i te taiao matua tino uaua o ngā tekau tau tata nei. E rua ngā mana whakahaere e mahi tahi ana: tuatahi, ko te tāke a te kāwanatanga o Trump o Amerika ki ngā taonga Hainamana me te tāke whakautu a Haina, i tino whakaiti i te hiahia ki te kānga, te pīnuinui, me te witi o Amerika; tuarua, ko te pakanga a Amerika me Īrana i whakararu i te Moana-a-Kōpua, ka tino rerekē te utu hinu, ka pāki atu ki ngā utu hua ahuwhenua mā te moni waipiro a-ethanol, ngā utu waka, me ngā utu tonga whakataipū. E ai ki ngā raraunga a Fastmarkets, i pēnei ngā āhuatanga i rerekē ai ngā utu o ngā hua ahuwhenua matua e puta ana i te Moana-a-Kōpua o Amerika: i piki te utu FOB o te kānga mā te 9.2%, i noho teitei te hinu pīnuinui nā te tautoko a ngā kaupapahere koiora-diesel, ko te hinu kau me te hinu o te pata kānga (DCO) i raru poto nā te pakeke o te tuku.

Tātaritanga e pā ana ki ngā rohe

Pānga ki ngā putanga ki Aotearoa

Ahakoa e aro ana te pānga tika ki te whenua o Amerika, ko te whakarerekētanga o ngā rerenga hokohoko o te ao ka pā atu ki Aotearoa. I whakataua e Haina he tāke whai hua e 23% ki te pīnuinui o Amerika, engari e 3% anake ki a Parīhi me Ahitina, i huri haere tonu ai te hoko a Haina ki te Tonga o Amerika. Nā tēnei huringa hangahanga, i hanga wāhi mākete mō ngā kākano raupī o Ahitereiria, ngā miraka o Aotearoa, me ngā hua pāma nikau o ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Heoi, nā te nui o te tuku a te Tonga o Amerika me te pēhitanga o ngā utu pīnuinui o te ao, i kaha ake ai te whakataetae utu mō ngā putanga kākano hinu o Aotearoa.

Mō te kānga, i huri te hoko a Amerika ki Mēhiko, Kōrea-ki-te-Raki me ētahi atu wāhi, engari kāore i tino whakakapi i te ngaronga o te wāhi mākete o Haina. Nā tēnei, i marara noa atu ngā rerenga hokohoko kānga o te ao, mō ngā kai whāngai o Ahitereiria, i nui ake ngā kōwhiringa pātaka kai, engari i piki ake ngā utu waka nā te pakanga i te Waenganui-rawhiti, kāore i heke iho te taumahatanga o ngā utu whakatipu kararehe.

Te pānga o te hinu me te waka

Nā te pakanga ki Īrana i piki ai te utu hinu, i piki tika ai ngā utu waka moana mō ngā rerenga whakawhiti i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Mō ngā hua a Ahitereiria (mīti kau), Aotearoa (mīti hipi), me ngā ika o ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e whakawhirinaki ana ki te waka moana, i piki ake te wāhanga o ngā utu waka i roto i te utu whakamutunga o te hua, i ngoikore ai te whakataetae utu. I te wā kotahi, i piki ake ngā utu tonga whakataipū (tae atu ki te haukawa) nā te pikinga o te utu haurehu, i piki ake ai ngā utu whakauru mō ngā mahi ahuwhenua o Aotearoa.

Te pānga whānui o ngā kaupapahere koiora-diesel

I herea e Amerika ngā utu o te hinu pīnuinui, te hinu kau, me te DCO ki āna kaupapahere hiko o roto, mā te whakaiti i te kawemai, te whakarahi i te RVO (Renewable Volume Obligation) me te whakataunga tāke mo te wahie ma 45Z. E ai ki ngā raraunga a Fastmarkets, kua wehe te utu hinu pīnuinui o Amerika i te paerewa o te ao, e rere motuhake ana. He wero, he whai wāhi hoki tēnei mō te ahumahi koiora-diesel o Aotearoa: i tētahi taha, te utu teitei o te mākete Amerika e kukume ana i ngā hinu kararehe me ngā hinu tipu o te rohe ki reira; i tētahi taha, ka tēnei e pōhara ai te tuku hinu momona me ngā kākano hinu i ētahi atu wāhi o te ao, ka piki ake ai te utu hinu kai mō ngā kaihoko o Aotearoa.

Ngā āhua roa me te tirohanga whakamua ## He Whakamāherehere i ngā Āhuatanga Moana me te Tiriti o Te Whakapae

E titiro ana ki ngā tau e 3 ki te 10 e heke mai nei, ka huri haere tonu te āhua o te hokohoko ahuwhenua o te ao. Ko te mahere ahuwhenua e 5 tau i whakaputaina e te Tari Ahuwhenua o Haina i te Pāenga-rā whā o tau 2026, e kī ana ka whakaitihia te rahinga kawenga o te soy ki te 21.5 paiheneti mai i te taumata toharite o 2023 ki 2025 e tae ana ki te tau 2035. Ko tēnei whakahekenga o te hiahia hanganga ka akiaki i ngā whenua tuku katoa (tae atu ki Oteania) ki te rapu mākete hou, ki te whakatikatika rānei i ngā hanganga whakato. Ko te āheinga o Amerika ki te whakahoki anō i te hononga hokohoko ki Haina e whakawhirinaki ana ki te hurihanga o ngā kaupapahere tāke, engari he uaua ki te huri i te wā poto.

Mō Oteania, ko te whakanuinga o ngā kirimana hokohoko ā-rohe – pēnei i te RCEP me te Kirimana Whakapakari Hokohoko o te Moana-nui-ā-Kiwa (PACER Plus) – ka taea te whakarato i ngā taputapu aukati. Me tere whakawhānui a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i ngā mākete ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Ahia, ki te Waenga-rawhiti me Āwherika, ā, me whakamahi i te āhua o ā rāua hua ahuwhenua kounga-nui, iti-warowaihana hei whiwhi utu taapiri i ngā mākete teitei. Ko ngā motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa me whakapiki i ngā hanganga āhuarangi-awhero me te whaihua o ngā waka ki te whakaheke i ngā utu hokohoko.

Whakataunga

Ko te taake a Tumuaki Trump me te pakanga ki Iran, mā ngā ara e rua o te rerenga hokohoko me te mekameka pūngao, kua whakarerekē hōhonu i te tikanga whakatau utu o ngā hua ahuwhenua o te ao. Ko Oteania, hei kaiwhakarato hua ahuwhenua nui i te rohe o Āhia-Kiwa, e pā ana ki ngā wero pēnei i te whakataetae kaha ake o Amerika ki te Tonga, te pikinga o ngā utu waka, me te whai wāhi mai i te ngaronga o te wāhi mākete a Amerika. Me āta aro ngā ōhanga ā-rohe ki te huarahi o ngā kaupapahere hokohoko Haina-Amerika, ki te ūnga o te rohe o Waenga-rawhiti, me ngā panoni o ngā ture biodiesel a Amerika, kia ngāwari ai te whakarereke i ngā rautaki whakaputa. Anake mēnā ka whakakotahitia ngā tohu utu wā poto me ngā ia hanganga wā roa, ka taea te whai tūranga pai i roto i te whakawhitinga hou o te hanganga hokohoko.

*Ko ngā kōrero i tēnei tuhinga i ahu mai i te tātari utu hua ahuwhenua o Amerika (Te Poho o Amerika) i whakaputaina e Fastmarkets i te 7 o Hōngongoi 2026, hei tohutoro anake mō ngā rangahau ōhanga ā-rohe.*