Tirohanga Ōhanga o te Ao 2026: Me pēhea a Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e whakautu ai ki te whakatikatika tauhokohoko me ngā rerenga hou o te haumi?

Te Tirohanga ōhanga o te Ao 2026: Me Pēhea Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e Whakautu ai ki te Whakatikatika Tauhokohoko me te Rerenga Hou o te Haumi?

Whakatakinga

Mai i te tau 2025, kua tino rerekē te āhua o te tauhokohoko o te ao. I whakanuia nuitia e Amerika ngā taiapa tauhokohoko, ā, i muri mai i whakaritea e ia he kirimana hou ki ētahi whenua maha, engari kua piki ake te utu o te whatunga whakarato me te kore pūmautanga. E whakaatu ana te tirohanga ōhanga o te ao 2026 a Deloitte (Global economic outlook 2026), kei te urutau ngā kāwanatanga o ngā whenua ki ngā āhuatanga tōrangapū-ā-rohe hou, me te whakatikatika i ngā kaupapa here pūtea me ngā kaupapa here hanganga. Mō te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, he wero hoki tēnei he whai wāhi atu anō: ko ngā mākete tuku taonga tuku iho o Ahitereiria, Aotearoa hoki e anga ana ki te whakatikatika, ā, ka whiwhi pea ngā whenua moutere o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa i te kaha whanaketanga mai i te mahi tahi pūngao ā-rohe me te haumi i te hanganga. Ka tiro tēnei tuhinga i te tirohanga ōhanga ā-rohe, ki te pēhea e pā ai ngā ia o te ao o te tau 2026 ki ngā ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Horopaki: Te Āhuatanga Hou o te Tauhokohoko me te Kaupapa Here o te Ao

E tohu ana te tohunga ōhanga matua o Deloitte, a Ira Kalish, i te tirohanga nei, i whakarerekē ngā whakarerekē kaupapa here i akiakina e ngā pōtitanga o te tau 2025 i te ara o te pikinga utu, ngā utu nama, te uara moni, me te rerenga o te tauhokohoko me te whakapaipai. I muri i te whakatinanatanga o ngā here tauhokohoko a Amerika, ahakoa i whakaritea e ia he kirimana ki ētahi whenua maha kia hoki mai ai te mārama, he nui ake te utu. I te wa ano, ko ngā kaupapa here tauhokohoko herenga i whakatenatena i te mahi tahi i waenga i ngā whenua ehara i a Amerika, me te hainatanga o ētahi kirimana tauhokohoko maha. I raro i tēnei horopaki, ka tino kitea i te tau 2026 ngā pānga o te hurihanga o te kaupapa here o te ao. Kei te whakapau kaha ngā kāwanatanga ki te whakataetae haumi i roto i ngā mahi auaha hangarau (ina koa te mātauranga horihori), engari ko te whakapaunga tere rawa o utu ki ēnei mahi ka tūpono ki te whakatikatika.

Te Tātari Hōhonu: Ngā Pānga Ōhanga ki Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

#### Te Āhua Whānui o te Ōhanga ā-Rohe

Ko ngā ōhanga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e tino whakawhirinaki ana ki te tauhokohoko o te ao, ina koa ki te kawe atu rawa me te kawe atu ratonga (pērā i te mātauranga me te tāpoi). Ka pā atu te whakatikatika tauhokohoko o te ao ki te tipu ōhanga ā-roto mā ngā huarahi maha: ka piki ake te hiahia kia whakaranu ngā mākete kawe atu, ka anga whakamua te rerenga whakapaipai ki te hanganga me te pūngao, ā, mā te kore pūmautanga o te tōrangapū-ā-rohe ka tāmi i te whakapono pakihi. Ko Ahitereiria me Aotearoa he ōhanga whanaketanga, he tino whānui ō rāua pūtake kawe atu, engari kei te anga rāua ki te rerekētanga o te hiahia a ngā hoa hokohoko matua; ko ngā whenua moutere o Te Moananui-a-Kiwa he tino whakaraerae ake, e whakawhirinaki ana ki te āwhina, te tāpoi, me te pūtea whanaketanga.

#### Ahitereiria: Ngā Rerekētanga o te Mākete Kawe Atu me te Haumi Pūngao

He whenua kawe atu nui a Ahitereiria i ngā rawa, ko te rino, te penehīni, te waro, me ngā hua ahuwhenua te nuinga o ngā kawe atu. Ahakoa kāore ngā taiapa tauhokohoko a Amerika e pā tika ana ki a Ahitereiria, ko te pōturi o te tipu ōhanga o te ao pea ka whakaheke i te hiahia ki ngā rawa. I tua atu, ko te raruraru tauhokohoko a Amerika me ētahi atu whenua (pērā i Haina me te Rōpū Whenua o Āhia-Whakatonga) ka akiaki pea i a Ahitereiria kia whakahohonu ake tōna hononga tauhokohoko ki Āhia. Ko te Kirimana Whakahoahoa Ōhanga ā-Rohe (RCEP) me te Kirimana Whakahoahoa Whānui me te Ahu whakamua mō te Tauhokohoko i Te Moananui-a-Kiwa (CPTPP) e whakarato ana i tētahi tāpaetanga, engari me kaha ake a Ahitereiria ki te whakanui i te whakaranu o ana kawe atu, ina koa i ngā ratonga me ngā hua pūngao hou.

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__INLINE_CODE_1__E whakawhiti ana te kaha o te hiko hei tino wāhi mō Ahitereiria. Ko te tirohanga a Deloitte e kōrero ana mō ngā haumi a ngā whenua maha ki te AI me ngā hanganga e pā ana, engari ko te wāhi e tika ake ana mō Oceania ko te whakamahinga o te kaha whakahou. He nui ngā rawa o Ahitereiria i te rā, te hau, me te lithium, ā, kei te piki haere te hiahia o te ao mō ngā hangarau kaha mā, me ngā pākahiko waka hiko. I te tau 2026, ka whai hua pea a Ahitereiria i te whakawhitinga raihana a te Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) a te United States, engari me āta tiro ki te kore pūmautanga o ngā kaupapa here a te United States. I tua atu, kei te whakataetae te kaweake LNG a Ahitereiria ki a Qatar, United States, me ētahi atu hoa whakataetae, engari he pūmau te hiahia o Āhia, inarā ko Hapani me Kōrea.

Mō ngā haumi hanganga, kua piki te whakapaunga moni a te kāwanatanga o Ahitereiria hei tautoko i ngā whare me te waka, engari ko te kore kaimahi me ngā here ture e ārai ana i te ahu whakamua. Te whakaatu mai a te tirohanga a Deloitte i te pikinga o ngā tāke a Kānata e pōturi ai te ohanga, he tohu tēnei kia tupato a Ahitereiria ki te whakataurite i te whakaohooho pūtea me te whakahaere i te pikinga utu. Ka noho pea te Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) i ngā reiti tiketike i te tau 2026, e whakaiti tonu ana i te whakapaunga moni.

#### Niu Tireni: Te kaweake ahuwhenua me ngā wāhi whakataunga tauhokohoko

Kei te whakawhirinaki nui te ohanga o Niu Tireni ki te kaweake miraka, kiko, huruhuru hipi, me te kaimoana, ko ōna mākete matua ko Haina, te United States, te EU, me ētahi atu. Ko te pikinga o ngā paepae tauhokohoko o te ao he mōrearea ki te kaweake hua ahuwhenua, engari ko ngā whakataunga tauhokohoko hou a Niu Tireni ki te EU, te United Kingdom, me ētahi atu, ka āwhina pea. Ko te tirohanga a Deloitte e whakanui ana i te mahi tahi tauhokohoko i waenga i ngā whenua ehara i te United States, he pai tēnei ki a Niu Tireni. I te tau 2026, me kaha a Niu Tireni ki te whakapakari i te hononga tauhokohoko ki Āhia-ki-te-tonga me te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, inarā i raro i te Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER Plus).

Mō te rere o te pūtea, ko te whakahou kākāriki a Niu Tireni e kukume ana i ngā haumi, tae atu ki te whakamahana whenua, te hiko wai, me te hauwai. Heoi, ko te pēhi pikinga utu me ngā reiti tiketike o roto e whakaiti ana i te whakapaunga me te haumi a te kāinga. E matapae ana a Deloitte ka heke tonu te pikinga utu o te ao, ā, ka heke ngā reiti a te Reserve Bank of New Zealand i ia wā, e wātea ai te huarahi mō te whakaora ohanga i te hiku o te tau 2026.

#### Ngā Moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa: Ngā hanganga, te pakari āhuarangi, me te pūtea whanaketanga

He iti ngā ohanga o ngā moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, he whakaraerae ki ngā raruraru o waho. He nui te pānga o te whakatikatika tauhokohoko o te ao me te rere o te pūtea ki runga i a rātou. Ko te kore hanganga he ārai roa mō te whanaketanga, ā, kei te huri te pūtake o te pūtea whanaketanga. Ko te haumi hanganga a Haina i te rohe o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e whakataetae ana, ā, kei te kaha te whakapaunga moni a te United States, Ahitereiria, Hapani, Niu Tireni me ētahi atu mā te "Blue Pacific Partnership" (PBP) me te "Pacific Infrastructure Initiative". Ko te tirohanga a Deloitte e kōrero ana mō ngā pūnaha whakatenatena haumi nui o te ao (pēnei i te RIGI o Argentina), ahakoa kāore e tika tonu, engari ka taea e ngā anga pērā te kukume i ngā rawa o ngā moutere (pēnei i ngā kohuke moana hōhonu) me ngā kaupapa kaha whakahou.

Ko te pakari āhuarangi he kaupapa matua mō ngā Moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ka tika tonu te pūtea mai i ngā pūtea āhuarangi o te ao (pēnei i te Green Climate Fund) me te āwhina takirua, engari i raro i te whakaheke pūtea o te ao, ka iti pea te nui o te āwhina. Me whakapakari ngā moutere i te whaihua me te kukume i te āwhina mā ngā kaupapa ā-rohe (pēnei i te taura whakaata i raro i te moana, me ngā whatunga hiko rā).Ko te whakahoutanga o te tauhokohoko ka whakahaere i te panoni o te āhuatanga ōhanga ā-rohe mō te katoa o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Me whai wāhi nui atu a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa ki te whakawhanaketanga o ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, mā te āwhina me te haumi hei whakakaha i te mana, me te āta tiaki i te urunga a ngā mana o waho pēnei i Haina. Ka huri te rerenga tauhokohoko ā-rohe nā te panoni pūngao: ka noho a Ahitereiria hei whare whakaputa haumāota kākāriki ki te rohe o Ahia me Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ā, ka whakamahi ngā moutere i te hiko o te rā me te hiko moana hei whakapiki i te takatūtanga o ngā pūngao.

Mō ngā haumi hanganga, ko ngā kaupapa hononga ā-rohe (pēnei i te whatunga rererangi me te kaipuke o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa) ka taea te whakapai ake i te pai o te tauhokohoko. Engari me āta whai whakaaro ki te pūmau o te nama, kia kore ai ngā moutere e raru i te nama nui. Ko te whakataetae ā-hangarau e whakaatuhia ana e te tirohanga a Deloitte ka whakanui ake pea i te āputa matihiko, nō reira me whakakaha te mahi tahi i te hanganga matihiko i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

Ngā Āhuatanga Roa

Ki te titiro ki ngā 3 ki te 5 tau e heke mai, ka whai ēnei panonitanga i Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa:

1. Te Whakatere i te Kanorau Tauhokohoko: Ka whakaiti a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i te whakawhirinaki ki tētahi mākete kotahi, ka whakawhānui i te mahi tahi ōhanga ki Inia, ki te tonga o Ahia, me te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. 2. Te Whakawhānui i te Whakaputa Pūngao Kākāriki: Ka whai wāhi matua a Ahitereiria i te whakaputa haumāota kākāriki me te rarangi whakarato lithium puta noa i te ao, ā, ka noho pea ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa hei kaiwhakarato whiwhinga waro. 3. Te Whakahōhonu i te Whakahaere ā-Rohe: Ka whai wāhi nui atu ngā tikanga pēnei i te Huihuinga o ngā Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa (PIF) ki te whakarite haumi hanganga me te whakawhanake rawa. 4. Ngā Whakawero Taupori me te Kaimahi: Ko te pakeke haere o te taupori me ngā kaupapa here manene ka pā ki te whakaratonga kaimahi o Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, ā, ko te piki haere o te hunga rangatahi i ngā moutere me whai hua mā te whakangungu pūkenga. 5. Te Auahatanga i te Pūtea Āhuarangi: Ka tautoko ngā here kākāriki me ngā taputapu pūtea whakauru i ngā kaupapa urutau o ngā moutere, engari me whakapai te mārama.

Whakataunga

Ko ngā āhuatanga matua e whakaatuhia ana e te tirohanga ōhanga o te ao a Deloitte mō te tau 2026 – te whakahoutanga o te tauhokohoko, te panoni kaupapa here, te auahatanga hangarau, me te panoni pūngao – kei te pā kaha ki Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Kei te pāngia tēnei rohe e ngā pēhanga o waho, engari kei a ia anō hoki ngā whai wāhi ahurei. Me whakarerekē ngā rautaki tauhokohoko a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa kia whakahohe, kia whakakaha te mahi tahi ā-rohe, me te whakamahi i ngā rawa taketake hei hopu i ngā whai wāhi ōhanga kākāriki. Me tautoko tonu te hapori ao i ngā moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, engari me whakapiki ake i te kaha ōhanga mā ngā kaupapa whakawhanake motuhake. I roto i ngā tekau tau e heke mai, ka huri te tūranga o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i te ōhanga o te ao mai i te kaiwhakarato rawa mata ki te pokapū tupu toitū me te auahatanga, engari e whakawhirinaki ana tēnei ki te kaha o ia whenua ki te whai i te huarahi roa i waenga i te kore tino mārama.