Ko te whakawhānui ake o te hinu tipua o te ao e whakahou ana i te tauira o ngā hua whenua o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa e tukuna ana ki tāwāhi

Te Horopaki Rangahau: Ko ngā Whakatupu Koiora te Pūtake Hou o te Ahuwhenua

I tukua e te whare rangahau rongonui o te ao, a S&P Global Energy, i runga i te tono a USFRA (Te Rōpū Mahi a ngā Kaipāmu me ngā Kaitiaki Kararehe o Amerika), tētahi pepa mā e kīia nei *Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst*. I ahu mai taua rangahau i runga i ngā raraunga whaipānga me ngā tātaritanga wehenga, e kī ana i roto i te horopaki e pōturi haere ana te tipu o te hiahia kai o te ao, me te piki haere o ngā hua o ngā kai, ka taea e te whakawhānuitanga o te mākete whakatupu koiora te whakauru pai i ngā nui o te rawa o te ahuwhenua, te whakapūmau i te whiwhinga moni a ngā kaipāmu, me te whakatairanga i ngā auahatanga hangarau o te ahuwhenua.

Mō te rohe o Oceania, he rohe e arataki ana i te ōhanga mā ngā hua ahuwhenua me te hoko rawa ki tāwāhi, he nui te take o ngā kitenga o te rangahau nei. E anga ana ngā tari ahuwhenua o Ahitereiria, Aotearoa me ngā moutere o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki ngā wero ōrite – te pōhēhē o ngā mākete hoko ki tāwāhi, te pānga o te panonitanga āhuarangi ki ngā whakaputanga, me te whakaōrite anō o te hokohoko o te ao. Ko te panonitanga o te tūranga o ngā whakatupu koiora pea te mea nui hei whakarerekē i te huringa o te ahuwhenua o Oceania.

Ngā Kitenga Matua: Me Pēhea e Whakarerekē ai te Whakatupu Koiora i te Ōhanga Ahuwhenua

E ai ki te rangahau, ki te kore e whakawhānuihia ngā hiahia hou pēnei i te whakatupu koiora, ka heke pea te rahi o ngā mārae witi i Amerika ki te 31% i te tau 2050, he rite ki te whakamutu i ngā mahi ahuwhenua katoa o te whenua o North Carolina. Engari i raro i te horopaki tipu tiketike, ka taea te whakapiki ake i te whakaputanga whakatupu koiora o te ao kia toru tōna nui, e āwhina ana i te whanaketanga o te mekameka ūmanga ahuwhenua katoa. Ko ngā whakataunga matua ko ēnei:

• Te whakapūmau i te rahi o ngā mārae whenua: I Amerika, ka taea e te hiahia nui o te whakatupu koiora te pupuri i te rahi o ngā mārae witi ki te 97.5 miriona eka, he iti iho i te 1% te heke iho i te taumata o te tau 2025.
• Te whakatairanga i ngā auahatanga hangarau: E ākina ana e te hiahia kaha te whakamahi i ngā hangarau purapura, hangarau tika o te ahuwhenua, me ngā hangarau whakaora whenua, e tipu ana ngā hua o te witi i Amerika mā te 1.6% i ia tau, ā, i te tau 2050 ka taea te whakapiki i te whakaputanga kia tata ki te 50% me te kore e whakawhānuihia ngā mārae whenua.
• Te tiaki i te haumaru kai: Ahakoa te tipu o te whakatupu koiora, ka piki ake te whakarato kai me te kai kararehe ki te 45% ki runga ake i te horopaki paerewa, me te nui ake o te haurua o te whakapikinga e whakamahia tonutia ana hei kai mā te tangata me te kararehe.
• Te pānga whānui ki te ao: Ko te hiahia whakatupu koiora o ngā whenua whakawhanake ka whakatere i te horapa o ngā hangarau ki ngā mākete hou, e whakaiti ana i te āputa whakaputanga o te ao, e whakapakari ana i te haumaru kai.

Ngā Pānga ā-Rohe: Ngā Whaiwhakaaro Hou me ngā Wero mō Oceania

Te Pānga ki Ahitereiria

He kaipupuri nui a Ahitereiria i ngā pata kai ki tāwāhi, ina koa i te pākura, te witi, me te rēpī. Ko te pikinga o te hiahia whakatupu koiora ka piki ake tika i ngā utu hua hinu me ngā pata kai o te ao, e whakapai ana i ngā tikanga hokohoko o ngā kaipāmu o Ahitereiria. I te wā kotahi, e kōkiri ana a Ahitereiria i te umanga whakatupu koiora ki roto i te whenua, ina koa ngā whakatupu koiora tuarua e ahu mai ana i te tōhuka me te pūkohu. E whakaatu ana te rangahau, ka āwhina pea te pānga horapa hangarau i a Ahitereiria ki te kawe mai i ngā tukanga whakaputa pai ake, e whakaiti ana i ngā utu whakaputa.Tāpiri atu, i te mea kei te whakawhānui haere ngā whenua pērā i te United States i te whakaputa o te hinu koiora, ka huri pea ngā taonga hua ahuwhenua tawhito (pēnei i te kānga, te soybean) ki te hokohoko ā-roto, ā, ka hanga tērā i tētahi wāhi nui ake ki te mākete o Āhia mō ngā hua ahuwhenua tino kounga o Ahitereiria, pēnei i te mīti me te miraka. Me āta tirotiro ngā kaihoko hua ahuwhenua o Ahitereiria i te pānga whakawhiti tauhokohoko e puta mai ana i te whakarerekētanga o ngā kaupapa here āhuawhenua o te United States.

Te pānga ki a Aotearoa

Kei te whakawhirinaki nui te ōhanga o Aotearoa ki te tuku atu i te miraka, te mīti me te ngahere. Ko te whakawhānui o te mākete hinu koiora ka whakaputa i ngā panoni utu mō ngā kai whāngai: i tētahi taha, ki te piki ake te utu o ngā matū kai pērā i te kānga nā te hiahia hinu koiora, ka pāngia ngā kaipāmu o Aotearoa e te taumahatanga utu; i tētahi taha, ko ngā hua ruarua o te hinu koiora (pēnei i te DDGS) ka taea te whakamahi hei kai whāngai whakakapi, hei whakaiti i te pānga.

Ko te mea nui ake ko te wāhi angitu i te rohe o te hinu rererangi whakahou (SAF). Kua oati te umanga rererangi o Aotearoa ki ngā whāinga whakaheke tukunga, ā, ko ngā rawa ngahere nui o te motu (pēnei i te para paina) me ngā hua ruarua o te miraka ka taea te hanga hei matū mō te SAF. Ko te "ariā tipu nui" i roto i te rangahau e whakapūmau ana i te tīmatanga o te mākete hinu rererangi me te hinu kaipuke, ā, e tika ana tēnei ki te rautaki ā-motu o Aotearoa ki te hanga i tētahi pokapū kawe waka waro-iti.

Te pānga pea ki ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa

Ahakoa he iti te ōhanga o ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, kei te kaha rawa te rapu i te motuhake o te pūngao me te kaha ki te āhuarangi. Ko te hinu koiora, hei taunaki mō te pūngao whakahou tohatoha, ka taea te whakarato i te hiko pūmau, i te wahie kawe waka rānei mō ngā moutere tawhiti. Hei tauira, ko Whīti me Papua Nūkini he kaha ki te whakatō i te hinu pāma me te waiu kokonati hei whakaputa hinu koiora. Ko te ara whakawhiti hangarau i te rangahau e tohu ana ka taea e ngā whenua moutere te whiwhi hangarau moroiti mo te whakaputa hinu koiora e tika ana mō ō rātou ake āhuatanga, mā ngā kaupapa mahi tahi o te ao, hei whakaiti i te whakawhirinaki ki ngā wahie matatapu kawemai.

Heoi, me tūpato hoki ngā whenua moutere ki te whakataetae mō te whenua me te wai. Ko te whakatō i ngā rawa nui hei whakaputa matū kai ka whakamōrea te haumaru kai, te whakakino rānei i te taiao, me āta whakamahere. Ka whai wāhi nui ngā umanga pūtea whanaketanga ā-rohe (pēnei i te Te Whare Whanaketanga o Āhia) ki te whakawhiwhi pūtea me te arotake hangarau.

Te Tauhokohoko me te Whakangao: He Taha Hou mō te Mahi Tahi ā-Rohe i Āhia-Kiwa

Ko te hokohoko hua ahuwhenua o Oketonia kua roa e whakawhirinaki ana ki te mākete o Āhia, ina koa ki Haina, Hapana me ngā whenua o Te Tonga o Āhia. Ko te whakawhānui o te hinu koiora ka whakahou anō i ngā rerenga hokohoko hua ahuwhenua o te ao.

• Whakawhānui mākete whakaputa: I te pakanga hokohoko i waenga i Haina me te United States i te tau 2018, i whai hua a Ahitereiria i te hoko whakakapi a Haina mō ngā hua ahuwhenua o te United States. Ka pērā anō pea: ki te whakaiti te United States i te tuku atu kānga nā te hiahia hinu koiora, ka huri ngā kaihoko o Āhia-kiwa ki ētahi atu puna tuku, e whai hua ai te tuku atu pata o Ahitereiria.
• Rere pūtea ki te hangarau ahuwhenua: Ko te rangahau e whakapūmau ana i te "tohu hiahia kaha e kukume ana i te whakangao". Ko ngā pakihi hangarau ahuwhenua hou o Oketonia (pēnei i te whakamakuku tika, te ahuwhenua waro, te whakaputa hinu koiora) ka whai whakaaetanga ki te nui ake o te whakangao mōrearea me te pūtea whanaketanga o te ao.
• Mahi tahi pūngao ā-rohe: Ka taea e ngā papa pērā i te APEC me te Huihuinga o ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa te akiaki i te whakaae tahi o ngā paerewa hinu koiora me te hanga i ngā mekameka tuku hokohoko whakawhiti rohe. Ko te tuku hangarau hinu koiora a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, ka āwhina i ngā Whenua Moutere o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te whakatutuki i te whāinga whakawhiti pūngao i roto i te Rautaki Whenua-nui-a-Kiwa Kikorangi 2050.## Ngā āhuatanga mō te wā roa: te hurihanga pea i ngā tau e toru, e rima, e tekau kei te heke mai

• 2025-2028: Ko ngā ohanga nui o te ao (Amerika, EU) ka whakaputa pea i ngā kaupapa here kaha ake mō te whakaranu wahie koiora, tae atu ki te whakapiki i te ōwehenga mana o te waiwaro me te tiwhikara. Ka arotake ngā kāwanatanga o Ōtānia i ngā painga o ā rātou rawa mata, ka whakatikatika pea a Ahitereiria me Aotearoa i ngā paerewa wahie o roto hei whakatenatena i te mahi whakaputa ā-rohe. Ka tīmata ngā Motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te whakamātau i ngā kaupapa wahie koiora iti, mā te whakamahi tuatahi mō te whakaputa hiko me te wahie mō ngā poti hī ika.
• 2028-2033: Ko te pakarutanga hangarau ka whakatutuki i te waiwaro whītau me te wahie koiora pūkohu ki te arumoni, ka whānui atu te whānuitanga o ngā rawa mata ki ngā para ahuwhenua me ngā toenga ngahere. Ka noho a Ahitereiria hei pokapū whakaputa wahie koiora ki te rohe o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki te Tonga, ko Aotearoa te tuatahi ki te whakatutuki i te whāinga whakaranu 5% o te SAF i te ao rererangi. Ka whakaurua ki roto i ngā whakaaetanga hokohoko a-rohe (pērā i te PIF) ngā tikanga whakaaetanga tahi mō te wahie koiora.
• I muri i te 2033: Kei te kaha te mākete wahie koiora o te ao ki te noho i runga i te 15% o te hiahia wahie wai katoa. Ka whakawhānui te rāngai ahuwhenua o Ōtānia i ngā whiwhinga moni mā te wahie koiora, ka tino kaha ake te kaha o te ohanga o te taiwhenua. Engari, ka tūtaki hoki ki ngā wero roa pēnei i te whakataetae ki te mahi kai mō te whenua me te wai, e hiahiatia ana he taurite kaupapa here.

Whakataunga

Ko te rangahau a S&P Global e whakaatu mārama ana i te tikanga mahi o te wahie koiora hei kaiwhakatairanga ahuwhenua, ā, e pā ana hoki tēnei arorau ki Ōtānia. Ahakoa te aro o te rangahau ki Amerika, ko ana whakataunga e pā ana ki te arahi hiahia, te hangarau hou, me ngā pānga hokohoko o te ao, he tohutoro rautaki mō Ahitereiria, Aotearoa me ngā Motu o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Me kaha ngā ohanga o Ōtānia ki te hopu i ngā whaiwhakaaro o te mākete e puta mai ana i te whakawhānuitanga wahie koiora, i te wa e tiaki ana i ngā tūponotanga pēnei i te pikinga utu kai kararehe me te whakataetae rawa, me te whakatairanga i te whakawhanake tahi o te ahuwhenua me te pūngao i roto i te mahi tahi a-rohe o Ahia me Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.