Asia-Pacific Capacity Restructuring: Changes and Responses in Oceania Trade and Logistics

Introduction

In April 2025, Maersk released its Asia-Pacific market monthly update, outlining key changes in the global shipping and logistics landscape. As a "barometer" of global trade, this report not only reflects the pulse of Asian supply chains but also provides important signals for the Oceanian economies. For Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific island nations—which rely on maritime shipping as their main trade channel—the restructuring of Asia-Pacific capacity, fleet expansion, and policy shifts are reshaping the cost structure, route layouts, and long-term development paths of regional trade.

Based on Maersk's public information and incorporating the regional economic characteristics of Oceania, this article analyzes how these changes are transmitted to the trade, investment, and infrastructure sectors of Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific island nations, and explores potential trends over the next 3 to 10 years.

Background: A "gear-shifting period" for the global logistics network

The "Gemini Cooperation" between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is accelerating. As of February 2025, the east-west network had completed 75% of its implementation and is expected to be fully completed by the end of May 2025. The Asia-Pacific network achieved a full switch-over in its very first month, demonstrating the integration efficiency of regional hubs. In February, schedule reliability reached 94%, significantly higher than the industry average. For Oceanian exporters that depend on reliable schedules, this means more predictable transit times.

At the same time, the global container fleet has grown 10% year-on-year, approaching a historic high, while idle capacity remains low, indicating that market demand is absorbing new capacity. This supply-demand dynamic directly affects freight rates and the difficulty of securing space on Oceania routes.

In-depth analysis: The triple variation of sea freight, air freight, and policy

Sea transport: Capacity expansion and network optimization in parallel

The resilience of global trade is first reflected in the maritime sector. In the first quarter of 2025, strong export demand in Asia-Pacific drove steady growth in global container trade volumes. For Oceania, Australia's iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas; New Zealand's dairy products and meat; and the Pacific island nations' agricultural and fishery products are all bulk commodities highly dependent on maritime shipping. Although fleet expansion helps alleviate capacity constraints, route adjustments during the network restructuring period may cause temporary connectivity issues. Maersk advises customers to plan space in advance and use digital tools to improve supply chain visibility—a recommendation that is particularly critical for Pacific routes, which are long-distance and heavily reliant on a single line.

It is worth noting that the Gemini cooperation network operates on a "hub-and-spoke" model, with Malaysia's Port of Tanjung Pelepas serving as a key transshipment hub. This may cause some Oceania cargo to be transshipped via Southeast Asian hubs, changing the traditional direct-sailing pattern. For New Zealand and the Pacific island nations, the frequency and efficiency of feeder connections will directly affect their export competitiveness.

Air freight: The spillover effect of the Asia-North America corridor### Air Freight: Spillover Effects from the Asia-North America Corridor

In air freight, the Asia-North America route has seen 15 consecutive months of growth, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in early 2025, driven mainly by electronics and e-commerce demand. Although Oceania is not a core node on this corridor, Australia and New Zealand's refrigerated goods and high-value manufactured products (such as medical devices and precision instruments) also rely on air freight. Regulatory adjustments in China's cross-border e-commerce, including the U.S. suspension of the removal of the de minimis exemption, may indirectly affect Oceania's e-commerce import channels. For Australia and New Zealand, online goods purchased from China may face customs and tariff uncertainties, thereby affecting consumer markets.

Inland Logistics: Infrastructure Investment and Regional Connectivity

Maersk notes that Asia-Pacific inland logistics is undergoing infrastructure expansion. The China-Europe railway and highway networks have shortened transport times, and Vietnam and Indonesia are also upgrading their road freight systems. Although these changes are mainly occurring in Asia, logistics companies in Oceania can draw on relevant experience to improve their own port-inland connectivity efficiency. Australia's inland rail project and New Zealand's freight network upgrades can both benefit from regional logistics innovation.

Trade Policy: Potential Ripples from the U.S. Section 301 Review

The U.S. Trade Representative is reviewing China's role in shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding, and may take new measures under Section 301. If implemented, this will directly affect shipping costs and indirectly impact importers and exporters in Oceania. As an important part of global shipping, importers and exporters in Australia and New Zealand need to closely monitor policy developments and adjust contract terms and logistics strategies. Maersk has expressed the industry's position through the World Shipping Council, but the outcome remains uncertain.

Regional Implications

Oceania countries have varying degrees of dependence on the Asia-Pacific shipping network, so the beneficiaries and those facing challenges from these changes also differ.

Australia: 'Stability' and 'Change' in Trade with China

China is Australia's largest trading partner, with iron ore, coal, and LNG exports highly dependent on stable maritime services. The high schedule reliability of the Gemini network helps reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions. However, if the U.S. Section 301 review pushes up ocean freight rates, it could increase Australian export costs and squeeze profit margins in mining and agriculture. On the other hand, ample capacity from fleet expansion may put downward pressure on freight rates, providing some breathing room for exporters.

New Zealand: Logistics Bottlenecks in Dairy and Meat Exports

New Zealand's exports are highly dependent on cold-chain logistics, especially dairy and meat. Improved schedule reliability helps maintain product freshness, but transshipment at hubs may increase transit times. New Zealand trading companies should assess the timeliness of transshipment via Tanjung Pelepas and explore diversified route options. In air freight, strong Asia-North America demand may crowd out some capacity, leading to higher airfreight prices from New Zealand to Asia.

Pacific Island Countries: The Vulnerability of Small Island Economies Pacific island countries (such as Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, etc.) are at the "endpoint" of shipping networks, with low service frequency and limited capacity. Global fleet expansion and hub optimization may further concentrate resources on mainline routes, leading to reduced feeder services. The infrastructure construction and climate resilience projects of these countries rely on imported materials, and rising logistics costs will directly weaken investment returns. Regional development institutions should focus on how to safeguard basic maritime services through regional cooperation.

Long-term Trends: Possible Evolution over the Next 3 to 10 Years

In the next three years, after the Gemini network is fully operational, the industry's schedule reliability will remain at a relatively high level, global fleet expansion may slow down, and capacity supply and demand will tend toward balance. "Environmental regulations" (such as the International Maritime Organization's Carbon Intensity Indicator) will drive the phase-out of older vessels, further affecting capacity supply. Oceania exporters need to adapt to stricter emission standards, which may increase compliance costs, but also create opportunities for green shipping corridors.

In the next five years, digital transformation will reshape the flow of logistics information. The real-time tracking and digital booking tools launched by Maersk will gradually become industry standards. Logistics companies in Oceania need to keep pace with technology investment, otherwise they may face competitive disadvantages from information asymmetry. In addition, the deepening of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may promote trade flows between Oceania and Asia, and shipping networks will need to adjust accordingly.

In the next ten years, the trends of "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring" in global supply chains may change trade flows. If Oceania can strengthen its supply chain links with Southeast Asia, it can become an important node in regional value chains. At the same time, the existential threat of climate change to Pacific island countries will drive more adaptation investment, and the transportation of materials needed for such investment will depend more on sustainable shipping solutions.

Conclusion

Maersk's Asia-Pacific market update reveals a core logic: the global logistics network is undergoing deep restructuring, and Oceania, as both a resource supplier and a consumer market, is both a participant and a party being reshaped. In the short term, fleet expansion and network optimization bring efficiency gains to regional trade, but policy uncertainty and hub concentration pose challenges to small island states. In the long term, the competitiveness of Oceania's economies depends on whether they can proactively adjust their logistics strategies, embrace digitalization and green transformation, and strengthen intra-regional cooperation to enhance bargaining power. Only in this way can they turn change into development opportunities amid the wave of capacity restructuring in the Asia-Pacific.